According to Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce’s recently released report about the nation’s export-import figures in August, Thai exports showed slower growth with 5.8% expansion, a significant drop from 11% in July while also missing a 7% growth forecast by economists.
Imports, however, surged by 15.8% YoY, well ahead of economists’ estimates of 8.2% and accelerating from 5.1% in July. This import surge contributed to a trade deficit of USD 1.96 billion, reversing from last month’s USD 322 million surplus and falling short of analysts’ expectations for a USD 516 million surplus.
Over the first eight months of 2025, Thai exports reached USD 223.17 billion, up 13.3% from a year earlier, while imports totaled USD 224.88 billion, marking an 11.3% increase.
By sector, agricultural shipments contracted for the fourth straight month, falling 13.6% YoY in August, weighed down by softer sales of rice, rubber, and fresh fruits. Meanwhile, agro-industrial exports slid 7.2% YoY, with seafood, sugar, and pet food registering the first annual decline in over a year.
Industrial exports, however, continued their robust run, gaining 11.2% in August, the seventeenth consecutive month of growth, supported by strong demand for computers, electronics, jewelry, telecommunication devices, and machinery.
Ministry officials noted that recent shifts in the U.S. trade policy have slowed export momentum. Thai shipments to the U.S., which had seen rapid front-loaded growth from March to July, with year-on-year gains between 23% and 42%, slowed sharply to just 12.3% growth in August.
Looking ahead, the ministry projects average monthly exports for the remainder of the year between THB 24 and 24.5 billion. If these targets are met, total export growth could reach 5 – 6% for 2025, surpassing earlier estimates of 2–3%, though the overall pace is expected to soften into the first half of 2026.
Strategy team from UOBKayHian Securities flagged concern over month-on-month declines in numerous categories, such as poultry, pet food, and select industrial goods. The strengthening of Thai currency also poses a potential headwind for key listed exporters, including GFPT PCL (SET: GFPT), Asian Alliance International PCL (SET: AAI), i-Tail Corporation PCL (SET: ITC), and electronics-related equities.
In contrast, cassava exports showed notable strength in August, potentially benefiting companies like Thai Wah PCL (SET: TWPC).
