On Thursday, the share price of Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (SET: BA) at the time of 11.31 a.m. was at THB 14.40, a THB 1.20 or 9.09% increase with a total trading value of THB 327.22 million.
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has observed that BA shares have come under pressure as Thailand’s tourist arrivals dropped 7% year-on-year over the first eight months of 2025. Despite this nationwide slowdown, Samui Airport — which drives 68% of BA’s passenger revenue — has defied the trend with an 8% increase in traffic during the same period, fueled mainly by robust demand from European travelers.
Samui Airport recently received approval to increase its daily flight cap from 50 to 60 flights, and the facility plans to expand annual capacity from 2 million to 6 million passengers through upcoming renovation works. KKPS estimates that Samui’s passenger traffic will rise 7%, hitting a record 3.0 million in 2025, with further gains of 3% annually for 2026 and 2027.
Because airfares on Samui routes average around THB 4,600 — much higher than the roughly THB 3,500 seen on non-Samui routes — KKPS expects BA’s overall average fares to continue climbing, in contrast to broader industry trends. This pricing power is projected to help BA maintain operating margins at 20% from 2025 through 2027, more than double the 10% average among peers.
BA also stands to benefit from Thailand’s aspirations to position itself as an aviation hub, and from Thai Airways International PCL’s (SET: THAI) plans to aggressively grow its network via Suvarnabhumi Airport. THAI, the largest codeshare partner for BA and a key contributor on Samui flights, accounts for about 4% of BA’s passenger revenue. Expansion in THAI’s network could further boost BA’s passenger volumes.
Despite temporary pressure from weaker non-Samui routes, leading to an anticipated 13% dip in core profit for 2025, KKPS expects BA’s earnings to rebound by 6-10% over 2026 and 2027, underpinned by Samui’s strength.
KKPS initiated coverage on BA with a ‘Buy’ rating and a price objective of THB 21 per share. BA’s valuation is attractively low at 8 times estimated 2026 earnings, compared with higher multiples for THAI, Airports of Thailand PCL (SET: AOT), hotel operators, and regional airlines.
Moreover, BA offers an expected return on equity of 22% and a prospective dividend yield of 8%, which should cushion downside risks from fluctuating fuel costs, tourism volatility, or contract renewals. KKPS uses sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) methodology to reach its valuation, viewing BA as an integrated player spanning airlines, airport operations, and related services.
Passenger volume recovery on the Samui route is seen as a near-term catalyst, with traffic expected to stabilize or rise marginally year-on-year in the second half of 2025, compared to a 3% decline in the first half, according to KKPS.
