Gun Hathaisattha, Chief Investment Strategist and Economist of the Research Division at CGS International Securities (Thailand), stated that, regarding the impact of the U.S. government shutdown, the market estimates losses at 0.015% per day.
Historically, a shutdown occurred during President Donald Trump’s first term, lasting more than 30 days. Should the current shutdown persist for a similar length, the overall GDP impact is expected to be only about 0.2 – 0.3%.
Additionally, the recent negative private employment numbers indicate minor layoffs. The high degree of uncertainty from the shutdown, combined with weak employment data, may compel the Federal Reserve (Fed) to further cut interest rates, following its recent rate reduction.
As for the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s (SET) performance yesterday (Oct 2), there was noticeable buying of Thai stocks since Oct 1, 2025, particularly in individual shares such as Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company Limited (SET: DELTA). Foreign investors were seen taking both spot positions and initiating some futures contracts.
Meanwhile, there is a possibility that the SET index could test 1,300 points. However, for a firmer attempt, it might be necessary to await next week’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. Gun personally believes that a rate cut is likely, given Thailand still faces significant risks.
Vorapak Tanyawong, Deputy Finance Minister, shared his personal view on the U.S. shutdown, stating that the impact could lead investors to shift funds into safe-haven assets, resulting in volatility in the baht and the SET. Additionally, in the export sector, U.S. orders—especially for electronics and industrial goods—may slow, and customs delays could result in port congestion.
For tourism, cautious spending is expected, with a potential decline in American tourists. Investment confidence will be affected by U.S. uncertainty, impacting emerging markets including Thailand. However, should the Fed accelerate rate cuts, some capital may flow back.
Thailand’s response measures include:
- Maintaining stability of the baht, with the Bank of Thailand (BOT) ready to use FX tools to shield exports and imports.
- Managing export risks by expanding into China, ASEAN, and the Middle East, and coordinating with commercial attaches in the U.S. in case of customs bottlenecks.
- Supporting the business sector with measures such as low-interest SME loans and FX hedging for exporters.
