The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-2 to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 1.50%. This decision contrasted with the forecast from a recent Bloomberg survey, where consensus projected a 0.25% rate cut down to 1.25%.
Following the decision, Phillip Securities (Thailand) commented that the lack of policy easing may trigger near-term disappointment among equity investors, as many anticipated a reduction in borrowing costs, potentially leading to a subdued performance for the Thai stock market in the short run.
However, the rate hold was seen as a positive development for large-cap banking stocks, as stable rates are expected to alleviate pressure on banks’ net interest margins (NIM). Looking ahead to Q3 2025, the sector remains attractive, with projected net profit growth of 3.9% year-on-year and a sequential increase of 0.4%.
Phillip is also eyeing upside potential tied to the government’s “Kon La Krueng Plus” stimulus program. Historical data from previous phases of the initiative show that banking shares delivered an average return of 15.1%, markedly outperforming the SET Index’s 6.9% average during those same periods.
Phillip Securities (Thailand) therefore recommends a speculative strategy focused on major banks that are expected to report strong Q3 2025 earnings and have exhibited outperformance during previous government spending rounds.
For example, Kasikornbank (KBANK) is projected to see Q3 net profit climb 6.4% year-on-year and 2% from the previous quarter. Krung Thai Bank (KTB) is anticipated to post a 12.4% year-on-year rise and a 12.2% sequential increase in net profit. Meanwhile, SCB X Public Company Limited (SCB) could deliver the highest growth among its peers, with estimated net profit up 16.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025.
