Analysts remain upbeat on CPALL Plc’s earnings outlook as Thailand’s leading retailer continues to demonstrate solid performance and operational resilience. With robust growth from its convenience store business and steadily improving profit margins, CPALL has retained its place as a top pick among commerce sector stocks.
CPALL Plc is expected to report a 3% year-on-year increase in core profit to THB 6.4 billion for the third quarter of 2025, according to estimates from Krungsri Securities. This growth will mainly be sustained by robust revenue and improved gross margins in its convenience store (CVS) operations. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, core profit is projected to fall 9%.
Analysts predict contrasting performance for CPAXT, with its third-quarter core profit likely to drop 6% year-on-year and 12% from the previous quarter to THB 2 billion. This decline is attributed to a 0.2 percentage point contraction in gross margin, down to 14.2%, as the revenue mix shifts toward lower-margin fresh foods.
Krungsri Securities reiterated its “Buy” recommendation and a target price of THB 80 for CPALL, emphasizing the stock’s attractive valuation of 13.8 times projected 2025 earnings—a level approximately 2 standard deviations below its historical average. The broker also highlighted the company’s expected core profit growth of 15% in 2025, reaching THB 29 billion, positioning CPALL as the most resilient retailer in its coverage universe and reinforcing its status as a top sector pick.
Meanwhile, Pi Securities also maintained its “Buy” rating, assigning a fair value estimate of THB 78 per share. The stock currently trades at about 14 times estimated 2026 earnings, below its historical average. Pi Securities projects a third-quarter net profit of THB 6.6 billion, representing a 6% year-on-year increase and a 6% sequential decline, supported by continued expansion of store branches and a 10 basis point improvement in gross margin.
Looking forward, Pi Securities anticipates continued earnings growth into the fourth quarter of 2025, propelled by rising sales of ready-to-eat and ready-to-drink products and bolstered overall consumption due to ongoing government stimulus measures. The broker noted consistent same-store sales growth at 7-Eleven locations and stable selling and administration cost ratios year-over-year.
