KGI Securities (Thailand) reports a robust market response to the iPhone 17 series, fueling double-digit year-on-year sales growth for Com7 Public Company Limited (SET: COM7).
The analyst notes that the iPhone 17 Pro Max is particularly popular and available stocks at COM7 outpace other retailers, with widespread stockouts reported elsewhere except at COM7 and Advice IT Infinite (SET: ADVICE). This upbeat reception aligns with KGI Taiwan’s latest findings, indicating that strong iPhone 17 demand could propel 2025 shipments above initial flat year-on-year forecasts.
For the third quarter of 2025, KGI anticipates COM7 will post a net profit of THB 842 million—up 19% year-on-year but down 16% quarter-on-quarter. Nine-month net profits are projected at THB 2.8 billion, a notable 23% year-on-year rise, already comprising 76% of KGI’s full-year forecast. This performance is underpinned by a 6% year-on-year increase in sales, particularly buoyed by the iPhone launch, and a gross margin improvement of 40 basis points due to fewer promotional campaigns.
Sales for 3Q25 are estimated at THB 19 billion, up 6% year-on-year but down 8% quarter-on-quarter. Gross margins are forecast at 13.8%, marking a 40 basis points year-on-year improvement. The overall 9M25 gross margin stands at 13.7%, outperforming the prior 2025 assumption of 13.4%.
Given these results, KGI has raised 2025-2026 earnings estimates for COM7 by 8% and 6%, respectively, while revising gross margin assumptions slightly upwards. COM7 is expected to deliver 20% year-on-year earnings growth in 2025 and 9% in 2026, but KGI points to factors warranting caution: fragile economic conditions, potential hurdles in store network expansion, and possible increased expenses following a subsidiary’s investment in M Vision PCL.
Following these developments, KGI maintains a ‘Neutral’ rating on COM7, with a target price of THB 28.50 per share.
