On Thursday at 11:20 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of KCE Electronics Public Company Limited (SET: KCE) gained 1.96% or THB 0.50 to THB 26.00, with a trading value of THB 297.10 million.
KGI Securities (Thailand) notes in its analysis, expecting KCE to report a normalized profit for 3Q25 of THB 325 million, representing a 16% year-on-year decrease, but an 85% increase quarter-on-quarter. This is attributed to the return of customer orders, which should enhance capacity utilization and margins.
Sales in 3Q25 are projected to reach THB 3.5 billion, down 7% year-on-year but up 8% from the previous quarter. Excluding foreign exchange effects, the figures are estimated at USD 110 million, showing flat growth year-on-year but 10% higher quarter-on-quarter, driven by recovering orders.
KGI points to a likely recovery in orders from Europe, which makes up 50% of total revenue, following moderate growth in passenger car registrations in the EU between July and August. Gross margin improvements are anticipated, supported by higher sales volumes and stable copper prices, which averaged USD 9,500/ton in 2Q25—a 4% year-on-year decrease and flat quarter-on-quarter.
Looking ahead, KGI expects 4Q25 results to improve year-on-year, though quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to be challenging due to seasonally weaker sales during the holiday period and higher average copper prices in 3Q25 (USD 9,900/ton), which could offset some benefits of a weaker baht.
As a result, KGI has revised KCE’s 2025 gross margin outlook downward from 19.4% to 19.2%, while profit forecasts have also been trimmed by 4% for 2025 and 3% for 2026. However, the target price for end-2026 has been raised to THB 24.00, up from the previous THB 19.20, with the recommendation being upgraded from ‘Underperform’ to ‘Neutral.’
