Following an analyst meeting with PTG Energy Public Company Limited (SET: PTG), Krungsri Securities (KSS) wrote that PTG’s management reaffirmed its ambitious target for the expansion of Pun Thai coffee shops, aiming to reach 3,000 outlets by 2026 and 5,000 by 2028.
As of now, the number of branches has already exceeded the 2025 goal of 1,947 outlets, representing an increase of 600 year-on-year. The expansion for 2026 will focus on 1,000 more branches, primarily outside oil service stations.
To boost recurring coffee purchases, PTG has adjusted its Max card plus promotion: instead of a 50% discount on up to 10 cups per month, the new scheme offers a 15-baht discount per cup for customers who purchase between 20 and 50 cups per month for the same 599-baht membership fee. This change is expected to drive up gross profit margins (GPM) at Pun Thai.
For the oil business, PTG will continue enhancing its service stations and services, targeting upgrades for 80-90 branches per year. Management believes these improvements will attract more gasoline sales volume.
However, they anticipate oil marketing margins in the fourth quarter of 2025 to be pressured amid volatile costs and two government-mandated diesel price decreases. Recovery in oil sales is expected to allow more flexible pricing, with the marketing margin projected at around 1.6-1.7 baht per liter, compared to 1.69 baht in the third quarter of 2025.
The company is also revising its Max mart business plan, viewing it as a future growth driver. In the first nine months of 2025, Max mart gross profit amounted to 371 million baht, or about 1 million baht per outlet, compared with Pun Thai’s 1.2 million baht per branch. Though not yet contributing profit, rapid expansion could make this a significant long-term driver.
Following these, Krungsri expressed a slightly negative short-term view due to possible declining oil marketing margins in 4Q25 from volatile oil prices and government diesel price cuts. This downside may temporarily outweigh the accelerated revenue from Pun Thai’s expansion.
Nevertheless, in the longer term, the brokerage firm views the new Max card plus promotion as likely to attract more coffee customers and support gross margin growth. Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on PTG, with a 2026 target price of 10 baht per share, suggesting windows for share accumulation amid short-term headwinds.
Looking out further, a normalization of oil costs and reduced government intervention are expected to restore marketing margins, drive oil business recovery, and support rapid growth in Pun Thai revenue, underpinning a projected 18% normalized profit CAGR for 2025-2027.
