According to an analysis by Bualuang Securities (BLS), shares of B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited (SET: BGRIM) declined 8% on Monday amid renewed market worries that electricity tariffs in Thailand may be cut.
The sell-off followed reports that the Thailand Consumers Council (TCC) projects electricity bills could be reduced by approximately THB 0.17 per unit if the “Adder”—a renewable energy incentive—were eliminated, as it currently contributes to the feed-in tariff (Ft) component of monthly power bills.
On November 21, 2025, the TCC filed a legal petition with the Administrative Court against the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) and the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), seeking to remove the Adder as a policy expense that can be passed onto consumers through the Ft.
Bualuang Securities views the news as “a noise” rather than a shift in fundamentals for BGRIM and considers the share price weakness a buying opportunity. The brokerage firm notes that the government has repeatedly reviewed the Adder scheme, but legal constraints in existing Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) have prevented any cancellation.
Even in a worst-case scenario, the legal process could take years to resolve, and most Adder-supported PPAs are already scheduled to expire over the next few years. This aligns with analysts’ current assumptions, so Bualuang does not expect the market’s electricity tariff outlook to be revised as a result of this event.
Structurally, several factors limit downside risk for Thai electricity tariffs. The global boom in data center investments is driving up demand for gas turbines, which in turn raises availability payments (AP) for new gas-fired power plants—as these form part of Thailand’s tariff structure.
Bualuang estimates that every new 1GW of capacity added to the system (whether gas or renewables) would raise tariffs by THB 0.02–0.03 per unit. New gas-fired projects remain necessary to meet forecast demand from hyperscale customers in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) as older Independent Power Producer (IPP) plants are retired, while the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) also expands capacity.
Given these dynamics, Bualuang sees no indication of a major structural electricity tariff decline over the near term. The analyst remains an ‘Overweight’ rating on the utilities sector and reiterates a ‘Buy’ recommendation on BGRIM, with a target price of THB 22 per share.
