Daol Securities (Thailand) disclosed its analysis and assessment of The Erawan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ERW), maintaining its normal profit estimate for 2025 at 745 million baht, a decrease of around 20% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the company’s profit outlook for 4Q25 is expected to soften year-on-year but improve quarter-on-quarter, in line with the high season for tourism in Thailand.
The research department sets the 2026 target price at 2.90 baht, viewing that the company’s profit has already passed its lowest point and a clear recovery will begin to manifest in 4Q25. However, risks remain regarding the uncertainty of contract renewal with GHE, which accounts for approximately 20% of revenue, and the potential threat of new disease outbreaks in the country, as ERW’s hotel portfolio is concentrated in Thailand—up to 88% of its total assets. Moreover, the number of Chinese tourists is recovering more slowly than expected, while the company earns the highest industry revenue proportion from Chinese tourists, estimated at approximately 13%.
