Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) maintains an overweight outlook on Thailand’s tourism sector as 2026 approaches, citing clear signs of a rebound underpinned by a hoped-for uptick in Chinese tourist arrivals.
Tourism and Aviation Stocks Set for Rebound
Despite hotel and aviation stocks falling 14% and 25% year-to-date, respectively—underperforming the SET Index by 5% and 16%—KKPS expects a turnaround as Thailand’s tourism industry heads into recovery. The decline was largely attributable to a 7% drop in tourist arrivals in 2025.
KKPS forecasts a 4% increase in arrivals to 34.4 million visitors in 2026, with potential upside as Chinese tourists may shift from Japan to Thailand following diplomatic tensions between the two Asia giants. The market share of outbound Chinese tourists to Thailand is expected to climb toward 11%—closing the gap with Japan, which held a 15% share as of the first nine months of 2025.
Since the start of the winter schedule in October, signs of recovery are emerging. KKPS foresees renewed growth in international passenger volumes at Airports of Thailand (AOT), with flight slots for the winter timetable up 17% year-on-year and a robust revenue per available room (RevPAR) forecast for both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.
Notably, excluding markets affected by geopolitical or natural disruptions like China, Cambodia, and Malaysia, inbound tourists in 4Q25 to date have grown 1% from a year earlier, reversing prior double-digit declines.
Hotel and Airline Earnings Outlook for 2026
KKPS expects Thai hotels to report a RevPAR recovery in 4Q25, with regional properties seeing strong demand from European tourists. While Bangkok hotels may underperform in the final quarter of 2025, a rebound is likely as Chinese visitors return, potentially driving RevPAR growth by 5-7% in 2026.
Overseas venues, particularly in Europe and the Maldives, are also expected to continue positive momentum, while the food sector is projected to expand, supported by increased outlets and stronger margins. Aggregate core profit for the hotel sector is forecast to rise 17% year-on-year in 2026.
In aviation, passenger volumes are forecast to advance in 2026, including 6% growth for AOT, 5% for Thai Airways (THAI), and 3% for Bangkok Airways (BA). AOT’s earnings could leap 24% for the fiscal year 2026, fueled by higher international passenger service charges, while BA should see a 5% profit increase as it benefits from growth at Samui Airport and non-Samui routes.
Nevertheless, Thai Airways is anticipated to face challenges that may cause an 8% profit contraction next year, given intense competition, maintenance costs, and expenditure on new aircraft before revenue fully ramps up.
Top Sector Picks: CENTEL and BA
Among the stocks under KKPS’ coverage, Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL) holds the top recommendation for hotels, propelled by a turnaround at its Maldives properties, expansion in its food business, and a 15% year-on-year RevPAR surge in Oct-Nov 2025. CENTEL’s core profit is projected to grow by 32% in 2026—the highest among peers.
Bangkok Airways (BA) is the preferred choice in aviation, offering an attractive valuation of just 8x 2026 estimated P/E, a robust 22% return on equity, and an 8% dividend yield. BA is buoyed by potential re-rating catalysts, such as possible extensions to its ground-handling and cargo concessions at Suvarnabhumi, as well as higher passenger service charges at Samui Airport. Samui continues to perform well, with passenger volume up 6% year-on-year in Q4-to-date and forward bookings for 1Q26 up 10% year-on-year.
Stock Recommendations and Target Prices
KKPS provides ‘Buy’ ratings for Minor International (MINT), Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL), Asset World Corp (AWC), The Erawan Group (ERW), and Bangkok Airways (BA), with target prices of THB 39.00, THB 37.00, THB 3.40, THB 3.20, and THB 22.00, respectively, while giving ‘Neutral’ ratings on Thai Airways (THAI) and Airports of Thailand (AOT), with target prices of THB 10.40 and THB 54.00 per share.
