Asia Plus Securities noted that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to meet on 17 December 2025. According to the BB Consensus, there is a possibility that the interest rate may be cut to 1.25% from the current 1.50%, aligning with Thailand’s gradual economic recovery.
Following the dissolution of the House of Representatives, fiscal policy can be implemented only for projects previously approved or endorsed by the Office of the Election Commission of Thailand (ECT), which leads the analyst to view that monetary policy needs to play a greater role in supporting the economy.
The short-term government bond yield is currently close to the anticipated policy rate, reflecting the market’s expectation that there is still room for further rate cuts, though not significantly. The policy rate for 2026 is projected to be 1.0%, down from the previous peak in the rate hike cycle of 2.50%.
For the commercial banking sector, the combined net profit of eight banks for 2025–2026 is estimated at around THB 260 billion, increasing 4% year-on-year in 2025, and at approximately THB 250 billion in 2026, a 3% decrease year-on-year, due to pressure from large banks.
Outstanding banks include KKP and TISCO, benefiting from a wider loan spread after deposit rate repricing, leading to expected net profit growth of 2% year-on-year in 2026, which is above the sector average.
For the title loan sector, although the bond yield is higher than the level seen at the end of 3Q25, it remains lower than the end of 2024, and the most recent debt issuance reflects a downward trend in funding costs. For example, SAWAD issued bonds in early November with 3–5 year maturities at coupon rates of 3.0–3.6%, compared to August’s 2–7 year bonds at 3.6–4.3%. Meanwhile, MTC issued bonds in late November for 3–8 year terms at 2.95–4.0%, down from 3.80–4.15% in August.
The brokerage expects the banking sector to be supported by the dividend season and value play trends, which help stabilize share prices. Key stock picks remain KTB, BBL, and KBANK.
Meanwhile, SCB and TISCO, which posted the highest dividend yields in 2H25, are highlighted under the dividend theme. For the finance sector, a positive outlook is maintained, with TIDLOR, MTC, and SAWAD as preferred picks.
