According to 2025’s data (as of December 17, 2025), the shares of Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF) and B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited (SET: BGRIM) declined significantly more than the overall market compared to the SET Index for 2025. Year-to-date, BGRIM shares have fallen 22.92% and GULF shares have dropped as much as 26.43%, while the SET Index has only fallen 8.91%. This reflects that both stocks fall into the laggard group, underperforming the overall market.
However, on December 17, the share prices in the power plant group began to show signs of recovery, led by GULF and BGRIM, which rebounded after investors responded positively to the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 1.25%. This provides a positive outlook for the sector in the periods ahead.
Yupapin Wangviwat, Chief Financial Officer GULF, told “Kaohoon” that the MPC’s recent policy rate cut by 25 bps will be beneficial to Gulf’s future financial costs, particularly regarding the new debentures to be issued in 2026 worth THB 60 billion. Once refinanced, their costs will be significantly reduced.
GULF has about 90% of its debentures at a fixed interest rate, while the remaining are floating-rate loans. Therefore, when interest rates decrease, the company’s refinancing cost for debentures will also decrease, said Yupapin.
She also sees the company’s performance in 4Q25 as still maintaining growth. In 2026, additional positive factors include six solar farm projects that will gradually achieve COD, totaling 623 megawatts. Meanwhile, the 1,200-MW Jackson natural gas power plant in Will County, Illinois, United States, is expected to bring over a billion baht in additional income from higher electricity prices next year.
Asia Plus Securities assessed that the power plant stock group is another sector likely to benefit from Thailand’s downward policy rate trend, as the MPC reduced the rate by 25 bps to 1.25%.
Meanwhile, investors are adjusting their portfolios by rotating out of the technology stocks and moving into defensive stocks, of which the power plant group is included. Moreover, share prices in this group remain laggards, underperforming the general market, making them even more likely to attract positive momentum.
Additionally, the significant drop in crude oil prices is a positive for the power producers’ cost structures, supporting the sector’s attractiveness during periods of market volatility and declining interest rates.
Bualuang Securities noted that GULF benefits from the falling interest rate theme. Initially, every 25 bps policy rate cut is estimated to boost GULF’s long-term profit by about 0.50-0.80%, since most of the company’s debt structure is in the form of a fixed rate.
However, the interest rate cut also positively affects stock valuation via the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, as the discount rate drops. This is expected to increase the upside of the target price by approximately THB 0.50 per share, reflecting greater value gain than short-term profit in absolute numbers.
Krungsri Securities remarked that GULF is entering a continual recovery phase, in line with the global capital market trend where investment is shifting from cyclical and technology stocks to stable-growth, consistent-yield equities in a defensive growth manner. GULF, as a major infrastructure stock, benefits directly from this wave.
Moreover, GULF aligns with the infrastructure and technology (Infra Tech) investment theme in Thailand, helping reinforce its role as one of the market leaders. The stock could potentially outperform the overall index over the next 1-3 months, supported by the 2026 election theme, which is a positive for large-cap and government policy-related stocks.
On a fundamental level, GULF is supported by the downward interest rate trend. Thai government bond yields with a maturity below 10 years continue to decrease, lowering funding costs and aiding in upward stock revaluation. The current stock valuation remains below its fundamental value when compared with the company’s long-term growth potential, as reflected by the stock price’s lagging behind asset quality and clear future income.
Furthermore, the company’s profit is set to enter a clear recovery cycle due to new power plant projects commencing commercial operations, synergy realization from the energy and infrastructure business, and improved profit margins in line with stabilized natural gas costs. When combined with a fully integrated strategic asset structure, covering electricity, natural gas, infrastructure, and digital infrastructure businesses, GULF possesses a stable long-term revenue base and strong future growth potential.
Based on the aforementioned factors, the brokerage maintains its “buy” recommendation for GULF with a target price of THB 59. Short-term trading is seen in the support range of THB 41.25 and 40.75 with resistance at THB 43.25 and 44, and a stop-loss set at THB 40.
Liberator Securities recommended “Buy” for GULF with a strategic target price of THB 60 per share. GULF’s earnings remain strong and likely to grow steadily in 4Q25. The main driver comes from the revenue recognition of wind power projects in Germany, as well as an accelerating profit share from Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET: ADVANC), expected to rise after fully realizing the lower spectrum cost benefit in the full quarter.
Additionally, GULF gains further support from profit-sharing of US power plants after a raise in capacity payment, significantly boosting profit growth prospects in the future.
Innovest X Securities stated in its analysis that BGRIM is spurred by the downward trend in natural gas costs, falling interest rates, and additional benefit from a stronger baht. The company’s 4Q25 core profit is expected to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, as gas cost reductions outpace the decrease in electricity tariff.
Moreover, BGRIM’s core profit is still expected to grow continuously by about 24% in 2026 due to rising electricity demand, particularly from the data center business. The short-term target price is set at THB 15.
According to the Investment Analysts Association (IAA Consensus), BGRIM’s average target price is THB 17.43, with the highest target price at THB 22.
