KGI Securities (Thailand) highlights a significant strategy shift at Bangkok Commercial Asset Management Public Company Limited (SET: BAM), calling the new direction a potential game-changer.
BAM is set to diversify revenue streams through multiple initiatives, including the formation of joint venture asset management companies (JV AMCs) with banks. This asset-light model will allow BAM to share profits, lower its debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio, and increase its dividend payments.
Additionally, BAM is partnering with property developers to divest non-performing assets (NPAs) at higher margins, marking a departure from its previous approach.
The new management aims to enhance income by directly selling non-performing loans (NPLs) and NPAs to end users, which should provide swift cash turnover. BAM is also exploring new business opportunities, such as renting out condominiums acquired at low costs, with competitive pricing expected to make rental income a viable future revenue source.
JV AMCs are expected to play a pivotal role in boosting earnings, showing strong returns this year and projected to continue performing well into the next. BAM established two JV AMCs earlier this year, recording profits of THB 48 million in 3Q25 and THB 78 million for the first nine months of 2025, with a forecast of THB 130 million for the full year.
Additional asset injections from Government Savings Bank (GSB) are set to expand the JV AMC’s asset base in the second half of 2025, potentially doubling revenue contributions and accounting for 12% of the 2026 earnings forecast.
Alongside increased JV AMC revenue, reduced expected credit loss (ECL) expenses—projected at around THB 500 million in 2025—are also set to drive earnings growth in 2026.
KGI has revised its earnings forecast for BAM, lifting 2025 and 2026 projections by 11% and 24%, respectively. The 2026 target price has been raised to THB 9.70 per share, from the previous THB 9.60.
BAM’s focus on quick cash turnaround is increasing cash collection growth by 3-5% annually, with a sharp rise to THB 17.5 billion expected in 2025 (+12% year-on-year). For 2026, cash collection is assumed to be THB 16 billion alongside lower ECL expense.
By expanding its asset-light JV AMC model, BAM’s D/E ratio is expected to drop below 2x, paving the way for higher dividends, with an assumed 75% payout ratio and a yield of around 7%. Applying a price-to-earnings ratio of 14x (-1SD), KGI upgrades BAM to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral,’ reflecting the positive outlook and increased target price.
