Krungsri Securities maintains its “Buy” recommendation for True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE), with an unchanged target price of THB 18.20 per share. For 4Q25, TRUE forecasted that the company will record a net profit of THB 3.2 billion, a reversal from the same period last year when it reported a net loss of THB 7.5 billion, and a sharp 107% increase from the previous quarter. This will mark four consecutive quarters of net profit since 1Q25.
The main profit drivers are a strong core operation and reduced one-off expenses. The key assumption for 4Q25 is that core revenue, excluding network interconnection charges, will rebound, growing 1.50% year-on-year and 2.30% quarter-on-quarter, after declines since 2Q25 due to network disruptions.
Revenue growth is projected both YoY and QoQ, supported by the core businesses of mobile and fixed broadband (FBB). Core operating costs are forecast to decrease 17.90% YoY but increase 3.50% QoQ, mainly due to cost savings from a mid-2025 auction.
Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) are expected to edge up 2% YoY but remain flat QoQ due to cost control strategies. Even though the amortization of telecom tower assets has ended, TRUE is expected to report a seasonal impact from impairment charges in 4Q25.
Based on 4Q25 estimates, the full-year 2025 profit will account for 101% of the annual forecast. The positive earnings outlook remains, with a 96.50% increase from the previous year, reflecting limited upside revision risk. A dividend per share of 0.05 baht is also expected, based on 4Q25 performance. For 2026, profit growth of another 19.50% YoY is forecast, driven by revenue growth and network rental cost reductions stemming from the previous auction.
KGI Securities (Thailand) expects TRUE’s core profit in 4Q25 to reach a new high of THB 4.8 billion, up 6% from the prior quarter and 43% YoY. This brings 2025 core profit to THB 17.8 billion, a 94% increase from the prior year.
Net profit is expected to be around THB 2.1 billion, up 30% QoQ and a turnaround from last year’s net loss. This takes into account the final network reduction (THB 400 million) and write-offs of other assets totaling THB 2.4 billion. Notably, TRUE’s mobile users count is estimated to return to growth after three consecutive quarters of declines from network disruptions.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are expected to rise 2% from the previous quarter, even though depreciation and amortization (DD&A) will be higher. Asset impairment charges are expected to decrease, compared to the large “big bath” charge in 4Q24. Additionally, TRUE may pay a dividend of THB 0.03 per share for 4Q25, in line with its policy of at least biannual dividends (already paid a 9-month 2025 dividend of THB 0.19 per share on December 3, 2025).
The sequential profit growth is expected to come from 1) higher revenue (high season for mobile services, strong mobile sales especially iPhone 17, and increased FBB revenue), and 2) full-quarter realization of frequency cost savings (compared with only two months in 3Q25).
YoY profit improvement will come from 1) mobile revenue up 0.20% YoY, as blended ARPU increases to THB 225 (up 1% QoQ and 5% YoY), with about 63,000 net new subscribers. FBB revenue is expected to grow 5% YoY, with ARPU rising to THB 526 (up 0.40% QoQ , 0.80% YoY), with a net increase of about 10,000 users, and 2) benefits from synergy.
4Q25 core revenue is forecast at THB 42 billion (up 1% QoQ , 0.60% YoY), supported by improved ARPU across mobile and FBB. However, KGI maintains a “Hold” recommendation on TRUE, which differs from consensus, with a target price of THB 11.40 per share.
The estimates are maintained, and 1Q26 core profit is expected to grow both QoQ and YoY, supported by mobile business recovery and positive election sentiment (scheduled for February 8, 2026). Even so, 2026 guidance may be cautious amid sluggish economic conditions and Thailand-Cambodia tensions.
