An unidentified investor secured approximately $410,000 in gains after wagering on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, capitalizing on an unexpected U.S. military operation that led to the leader’s capture over the weekend.
The trader reportedly accumulated positions on Polymarket—an online prediction market—in contracts that reflected low odds of Maduro’s ouster just days before the event unfolded. According to Polymarket data, the value of these bets, which initially totaled around $34,000, soared immediately after the operation was made public.
Stock markets saw a rally with major indices and energy stocks recording notable advances following the news, as investors responded to speculation around Venezuela’s political future. Government bonds—long beset by defaults—also surged significantly, spurred in part by expectations of forthcoming sovereign debt restructuring.
Securities issued by Venezuela and its state-owned oil giant PDVSA rose as much as 10 cents on the dollar, a jump of nearly 30%, as optimistic investors moved quickly in the wake of the developments.
The trade is raising concerns among U.S. lawmakers, some of whom have advocated for tighter insider trading regulations. Calls have grown for the prohibition of trading by public officials, with a bipartisan group pushing potential legislative changes.
After details of the Maduro-linked transaction came to light on Monday, one of the lawmakers announced plans to introduce a bill that would ban legislators, federal employees, and elected officials from engaging in prediction market trading, citing potential access to privileged information as a risk.
Track record shows that the anonymous trading account was opened last month, beginning with a $96 investment on contracts that stood to profit if the U.S. launched an invasion of Venezuela by the end of January. Additional, similar positions were purchased in the days that followed.
Platforms like Polymarket enable users to buy and sell binary contracts on a broad range of real-world events, such as sports, politics, entertainment, and the economy. Profits can be substantial if traders possess advanced or non-public knowledge, with contracts occasionally generating gains of several hundred percent within hours.
