The outlook for Thailand’s retail sector remains subdued for 2026 as Maybank Securities (Thailand) maintains a NEUTRAL sector view, citing continued weaknesses in domestic consumption and uncertainty around policy support. The firm expects modest signs of recovery, buoyed by an uptick in tourism and more favorable weather conditions, but overall growth remains fragile pending government formation and stimulus measures.
Maybank projects Thailand’s GDP and private consumption growth to slow to 1.7% each in 2026, down from respective 2.1% and 2.5% estimates for 2025. While the upcoming general election in February may offer a temporary lift to spending, the absence of concrete stimulus measures until a new government is formed in May tempers prospects for a meaningful rebound.
Same-store sales growth (SSSG) in the retail sector is forecast to average +0.7% in 2026, recovering from -1.4% in 2025. Maybank expects MOSHI to post the strongest SSSG at 3.0%, followed by MRDIYT, Mega Home, and 7-Eleven. However, key players like Thai Watsadu, Global, and Big C are predicted to see continued negative SSSG.
Retailers plan to stay on the expansion path: lifestyle names such as MOSHI and MRDIYT are set to lead with store growth of 18% year-on-year, while the home improvement segment should increase by 8% year-on-year. The sector’s core profit is expected to climb 8% year-on-year to THB 67.1 billion in 2026.
Despite downward pressure on return on equity (ROE), Maybank highlights that valuation de-ratings in the sector have been sharper than profit declines, driven mainly by risk aversion. The firm anticipates limited further price-to-earnings (PE) ratio declines as much of the earnings risk is already priced in, and sees potential for valuations to stabilize.
For investors, Maybank identifies CPALL and MOSHI as top picks. CPALL stands out for its resilient earnings, strong 20% ROE, and an attractive 12.1x FY26E P/E—two standard deviations below its 10-year mean. MOSHI is favored for robust 18.4% profit growth, a high 25.4% ROE, and potential upside from a rising dividend payout ratio.
