On March 2, Emeritus Professor Dr. Surachat Bamrungsuk, a faculty member of the Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University, and an expert in international security and military strategy, gave an interview to “Kaohoon” regarding the tensions in the Middle East between Israel, which is supported by the United States, and Iran.
Dr. Surachart stated that Al Jazeera reported since the morning that southern Lebanon was attacked. At this moment, there is no clear sign of an escalation of fighting to other areas, except for the Red Sea region, where maritime routes are disrupted, as well as the protests at the U.S. Embassy in Pakistan. The situation in other areas remains to be monitored.
When asked about the possibility of the conflict escalating to the third World War, Dr. Surachart noted that, theoretically, the situation has not yet reached such a point, and there is still no clarity on whether the war will intensify into a regional war in the Middle East. Although Iran has attacked some countries in the Gulf region that host U.S. military bases, such as Bahrain and Qatar, there are still no conditions indicative of escalation to global war.
He specified that “the prospect of world war is on hold,” as any world-wide conflict can only happen with more expansive and violent catalysts.
Regarding the duration of the conflict, Dr. Surachart said it is currently not possible to assess.
On the roles of China and Russia, Dr. Surachart stated that both countries, through diplomatic channels, have called on the U.S. to cease its operation and have condemned the violence, but there is no indication of any action beyond these gestures.
As for the impact on Thailand, Dr. Surachart stated that the key issue is the cost of living, given that oil, gas, and transport prices may be passed on to product prices, which will have effects in both the short and long term. Gold prices have also risen and become volatile. However, as of Monday morning, oil prices had not yet surged as much as previously feared.
