On January 12, 2026, the Thai stock market saw a sharp sell-off in hospital shares, led by Bumrungrad Hospital (BH) and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS), prompted by investor concerns over the potential impact of a new co-payment policy, which requires health insurance policyholders to share a portion of medical expenses with insurers.
Although the market reaction was pronounced, analysts suggest the effect may be short-lived. In the medium to long term, the implications are expected to be limited since the co-payment rule applies only to new insurance policies, leaving existing contracts unchanged.
Thailand had already introduced the co-payment concept in March 2025, prompting patients and hospitals to adjust their behavior accordingly. Despite implementation, health insurance premium growth remained robust during the first nine months of 2025.
Looking ahead, hospital stocks are still viewed favorably for 2026, driven primarily by the influx of international patients, particularly from the Middle East, seeking treatment at large private hospitals. This trend is likely to provide a boost to both revenue and net profit.
In contrast, recovery in the CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) patient segments has been slower, and local patient numbers remain under pressure amid Thailand’s sluggish economic conditions.
Hospitals are expected to see growth in high-acuity and complex medical cases over the longer term, maintaining the appeal of major private healthcare providers for patients prioritizing care quality.
BH and BDMS have been at the center of analyst attention, with both reporting strong year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth in 3Q25. Projections for Q4 remain positive, supported by higher domestic patient income due to an unusually late rainy season.
Asia Plus Securities indicated that fourth-quarter profit momentum is set to improve further, buoyed by continued demand from Middle Eastern and American patients, as well as increased Thai pediatric cases driven by a spike in childhood infectious diseases such as RSV and influenza, attributed to the tardy rainy season. This will help offset the slower recovery in patient numbers from Cambodia and China.
Notably, BH has focused on investing in new technologies to reduce costs, including IntelliCare Plus AI to streamline administrative work for medical staff, as well as implementing E-Signature and E-Consent systems throughout the treatment process. Its CSR initiatives also afford tax benefits.
BH’s management recently shared an upbeat outlook, anticipating Q4 revenue growth of 2-4% quarter-on-quarter. This is underpinned by Middle Eastern and other international patients, with plans to increase service charges by 3-5% in 2026 to keep pace with inflation.
TISCO Securities reinforced this view, noting that around 67% of BH’s revenue stems from international patients, insulating it from co-payment effects. For BDMS, though about one third of income is linked to domestic insurance, the impact is seen as limited since its three main hospitals are part of the AIA Smart Network and more than a third of the group’s revenue is derived from complex case patients.
BDMS management anticipates Q4 to be the strongest quarter of the year, attributed to the recovery in foreign arrivals and increased disease incidence towards year-end, bolstering hospitals in tourist locations. However, there is pressure from the slow recovery in income from Cambodia.
Following these developments, both BH and BDMS continue to receive strong endorsements from analysts, remaining top picks for investors’ portfolios.
