Daol Securities (Thailand) estimated that the normalized profit for 4Q25 of Thai Union Group Public Company Limited (SET: TU) will be approximately THB 1.1 billion, a decrease of 3% year-on-year and a decrease of 4% quarter-on-quarter. This figure is below the brokerage’s preliminary forecast of THB 1.2–1.3 billion. Key factors are as follows:
1) Revenue remained flat, decreasing by 0.3% year-on-year due to the appreciation of the Thai baht, while showing a slight increase of 1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by seasonality and the beginning of recovery in the Ambient business segment in Europe.
2) Gross profit margin declined by 20 basis points year-on-year and by 50 basis points quarter-on-quarter, impacted by the appreciation of the baht and the company’s inability to sufficiently raise selling prices to offset higher tariffs.
3) The effective tax rate stood at 3%, down from 9% in 3Q25, after the impact of the Global Minimum Tax was lower than the securities firm had projected.
Taking these factors into account, the brokerage house slightly revised down the normalized profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to THB 4.2 billion and 4.5 billion, representing a 16% decrease year-on-year and a 9% increase year-on-year, respectively, to reflect the impact of the baht’s appreciation.
For 1Q26, the analyst firm preliminarily expects the normalized profit to return to growth year-on-year, from a low base in 1Q25 when Ambient business customers delayed orders to assess the situation after tuna prices rose against the seasonality. Meanwhile, profit is expected to remain flat quarter-on-quarter.
Daol maintained a “Buy” recommendation and a target price of THB 14.00, based on a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation, reflecting the expectation that normalized profit in 2026 will see a recovery for the first time in four years, supported by a gradual normalization of global trade and a significant reduction in business transformation expenses.
