Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on March 26, 2026, that both the U.S. and Iran are actively pursuing a ceasefire agreement, however, he noted that the negotiation may take times as both parties are disagreeing on the term. He expects both the oil prices and the US dollar to move sideways during the negotiation period.
Domestically, Mr. Koraphat expects the Thai market to move sideways-down, with a potential for consolidation, after the retail oil prices have suddenly soared by THB 6. A support level for the SET Index was given at 1,440 – 1,430 points, and a resistance level at 1,466 – 1,480.
The analyst recommends stocks in sectors that may potentially rebound amid rising oil prices, including:
- Petrochemical sector: Mr. Koraphat anticipates the sector to benefit from the oil prices in the medium-to-long term, as well as the sector’s attractive valuation. The “Buy” recommendation was given, especially as Thai petrochemical firms have enough feedstocks to maintain operation throughout April.
- Refinery sector: The analyst forecasted that the sector will benefit from oil premium in the short-to-medium term, as tight global oil supply may potentially bolster the firms’ performance through 2Q26. The “Buy” recommendation was given.
- Gas station sector: The sector has previously been pressured by the government price cap on diesel, with the end of price control, the sector is expected to benefit in the short-term. The “Speculate” recommendation was given, as the government may reimplement the price control. If the government did not reintroduce such a measure, the recommendation will be changed to “Trading” instead.
Regarding interest rate, Mr. Koraphat expects the rate policy to remain unchanged, as the economy is currently in a deflationary phase. Despite rising core CPI, the headline inflations remain in a downward trend. Furthermore, while the rising cost of living may improve inflation, it will likely be offset by the influx of cheap Chinese goods, and worsening deflation.
The analyst also added that if the war ends by April, the rate easing trend will continue, but if the war is prolonged beyond April, the interest rate will pivot toward tightening, with risks of stagflation.
Mr. Koraphat added that the recent rise of foreign fund inflows was due to Thailand’s robust commodity prices, which are higher than baseline, and discounted valuation.
KSS’ strategist also estimated that the U.S. may opt to end the Iran war before May, as it is a primary voting month for the swing states in the mid-term election. This scenario will bolster fund inflows in the Asian markets.
