On Monday at 11:44 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of i-Tail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: ITC) expanded by 3.97% or THB 0.60 to THB 15.70, with a trading value of THB 47.34 million.
DAOL Securities (Thailand) expects ITC to post a normalized profit of THB 790 million for the first quarter of 2026, representing a 13% increase year-on-year but a 4% decrease from the previous quarter. This figure is in line with previous estimates.
The main supporting factor comes from revenue growth of 17% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter due to sustained strong customer demand in the U.S. market, combined with a low base in the previous year arising from shipping reservation issues. However, there has been no significant acceleration in purchase orders.
Gross profit margin (GPM) is anticipated to increase by 40 basis points year-on-year but decrease by 130 basis points quarter-on-quarter due to a reduced proportion of premium products. Meanwhile, the effective tax rate is set to rise to 6.5% as a result of the impact of Global Minimum Tax (GMT) requirements.
The normalized profit forecast for 2026 is maintained at THB 3.2 billion, which represents a 7% increase year-on-year. The brokerage notes that there is a risk of rising costs, particularly for plastic packaging, which accounts for around 20% of total costs and may begin to have an impact from the second quarter of 2026. However, ITC currently has sufficient inventory to last through May 2026 and plans to gradually adjust sales prices beginning in Q2.
For the outlook in 2Q26, normalized profit is expected to continue to grow year-on-year, but is likely to remain stable quarter-on-quarter.
Following these, a ‘Buy’ recommendation is maintained with a target price of THB 20.00 per share, reflecting a view that the company can manage costs at a controllable level, demand remains robust, while there is additional upside potential from M&A deals expected to become clearer within this year.
