KGI Securities (Thailand) maintains a promising outlook for Major Cineplex Group Public Company Limited (SET: MAJOR) as strong momentum is expected to continue in the cinema industry throughout 2026. The year is anticipated to see a robust movie lineup, which industry tracker Gower Street forecasts will help global box office revenue reach its highest level since 2019.
Major blockbuster releases, such as Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Avengers, and Dune: Part 3, are expected to fuel a 5% year-on-year increase in global cinema receipts. The anticipation is already evident, with the trailer for Spider-Man: Brand New Day breaking records by amassing one billion views just four days after its release, ahead of the film’s scheduled debut on July 29, 2026.
Likewise, local content has played a key role in boosting MAJOR’s 2026 revenue outlook. The Thai film Sup-pa-ler 2 generated over THB 300 million in revenue this quarter, swiftly earning a place among the top five highest-grossing domestic titles of all time. The momentum is poised to continue with a strong slate of local releases expected over the remainder of the year.
However, some headwinds persist. Economic uncertainty is projected to weigh on advertising revenue in the first half of 2026, with KGI Securities expecting ad-related income to remain weak. Nonetheless, this segment accounts for only about 10% of MAJOR’s total revenue.
KGI estimates that a 5% change in advertising revenue would shift overall earnings by 3%, highlighting the company’s limited sensitivity to declines in this area. Cost optimization and operational efficiency initiatives undertaken in recent quarters have helped MAJOR push its gross profit margin above pre-pandemic levels, which should support continued earnings growth throughout 2026.
KGI’s earnings estimates for MAJOR are seen as achievable, with forecasts based on a 5% gain in guest counts, although this is more conservative than the company’s own target of 40%. MAJOR is projected to record a net profit for 2026 of THB 666 million, representing a 6% year-on-year increase, underpinned by expanding revenues and improved margins attributed to a stronger movie lineup.
While earnings for the first quarter of 2026 are expected to soften slightly on a sequential basis due to seasonal factors, they should show strong year-on-year improvement supported by the healthy box office performance.
KGI continues to rate MAJOR as ‘Outperform’ and maintains its 2026 target price at THB 9.70 per share, using a 2026 forward price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 11 times, which is one standard deviation below the historical average. The company is currently trading at a 2026 PE of 8.3 times and offers a 4-5% dividend yield, deemed as attractive.
