Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited (SET: BEM) demonstrated strong resilience in March 2026, with both expressway traffic and MRT Blue Line ridership holding steady despite elevated fuel prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, according to an analysis by Tisco Securities.
BEM’s expressway network saw average daily traffic reach approximately 1.12 million trips in March, representing a 1.7% year-on-year increase. The robust traffic figures benefited from a low comparison base in 2025, which was marked by disruptions from an earthquake. Importantly, this steady traffic highlights the defensive nature of urban core commuting in Bangkok—even as fuel prices spiked due to the Iran–Israel–US conflict. Toll revenue edged up marginally by 0.3% YoY to Bt25.5 million per day, reflecting mix and pricing effects, rather than a decline in demand.
The MRT Blue Line reported a 5.1% YoY rise in daily ridership to 432,000 trips in March, while farebox revenue climbed 5.4% YoY to Bt13 million per day. The month-on-month decline was attributed to seasonal factors such as school closures from the third week of March and a reduction in tourist numbers—particularly visitors from the Middle East—amid prevailing geopolitical uncertainties. Nevertheless, the YoY growth signals underlying commuter demand remains intact.
Tisco’s analysis sees March’s trends as indicative of ongoing normalization rather than a renewed acceleration in growth. The expressway segment continues to be supported by routine weekday commuters, while the rail business remains sensitive to changes in urban dynamics. Year-to-date numbers are largely in line with forecasts, underpinning earnings stability for 2026, but not suggesting significant upside.
Tisco highlights the continued risk from the Iran–Israel–US crisis, which could potentially disrupt oil markets further and spark a return to remote working—affecting both expressway traffic and mass transit ridership. Despite these headwinds, BEM’s March data demonstrates resilience under pressure. The firm retains its outlook with a SOTP-based target price of Bt8.80 and a BUY rating, citing steady core asset demand and BEM’s defensive urban mobility profile.
