Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed its “Overweight” rating on Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET: ADVANC), but raising its bear-case capex intensity assumption by 10 percentage points to reflect concerns about potentially higher reinvestment into the company’s mobile network and growth-focused investments in areas such as data centers and digital banking. As a result, the valuation under the bear-case scenario is lowered to Bt315, down from the previous estimate of Bt335.
Nevertheless, Thailand remains Morgan Stanley’s top pick among ASEAN telecom markets, with AIS singled out as a key cash-generating asset for both GULF, its major shareholder, and Singtel, second-largest shareholder. The brokerage also noted the company’s strong optionality in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence data center market, a sector experiencing significant growth within Thailand.
In their latest valuation snapshot, Morgan Stanley sets a price target of Bt450.00 for ADVANC, with the bull-case scenario at Bt535.00—implying a potential upside of 52.86%—and a base case at Bt450.00, suggesting a 28.57% upside. The primary downside risk remains the possibility of above-expected reinvestment rates, while the main upside drivers include strengthened pricing power and additional growth opportunities related to AI data centers.
Additionally, the base-case target from Morgan Stanley is the highest, compared to Thai brokers’ consensus at THB 395 with KGI Securities tops other recommendations with a target price at THB 422 per share.
