Kasikorn Securities (KS) has maintained its 2026 tourism forecast for Thailand at 31.5 million visitors, a decrease from 33 million in 2025. According to the analyst, July 2026 saw 2.55 million arrivals, down 2.5% year-on-year but surpassing an earlier projection of 2.4 million.
For the first seven months of the year, total visitor numbers reached 17 million, marking a 3.1% decline year-on-year, attributed mainly to a significant drop in tourists from ASEAN (-14.2%), the Middle East (-14.5%), and Africa (-2.5%).
Despite the decrease in tourist numbers, Kasikorn anticipates a strong performance in Thailand’s hotel sector for the second half of 2026. Full-year RevPAR is projected to average THB 3,880, a 6.4% increase year-on-year, supported by both higher occupancy rates (average 70.9%) and a 4.2% year-on-year rise in average daily rate.
The improved RevPAR is expected to reinforce solid hotel sector results, even with easing tourist arrivals and potentially higher airfares. Kasikorn also sees increased upside risks for hotel earnings, reflecting positive management outlooks.
Kasikorn has revised up its 2026-2028 normalized profit estimates for the hotel sector by 4.2–5.3%, highlighting a more optimistic view of local hotel business performance. This adjustment is based on stronger-than-expected first-half revenue and EBITDA margins, with no change in assumptions regarding tourist arrivals or jet fuel prices.
Kasikorn maintains a ‘Neutral’ stance on the overall tourism sector but retains a positive outlook for hotel operators over airlines, citing the hotel segment’s resilience amid falling tourist numbers. In 2Q26, RevPAR rose year-on-year due to an uptick in average daily rates and stable occupancy, a trend expected to continue in the second half, bolstered by resilient domestic tourism, the Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions (MICE) sector, and gradual international recovery.
CENTEL has been elevated as a top pick, while AWC remains the favored choice. CENTEL is expected to deliver robust performance in the second half of 2026, with management forecasting double-digit RevPAR growth in 3Q26 driven by strong advance bookings.
Overall, Kasikorn believes momentum in tourist recovery, strong RevPAR, MICE demand, and potential government stimulus could support further earnings upgrades for select hotel stocks. The brokerage recommends ‘Outperform’ ratings for AWC, CENTEL, DUSIT, ERW, MINT, and SHR, with target prices of THB 3.74, THB 48.11, THB 12.57, THB 4.14, THB 29.92, and THB 2.03, respectively.
