KGI Securities (Thailand) remains constructive on Thailand’s ICT sector, particularly highlighting its defensive appeal despite a lack of immediate catalysts for further upside. The sector’s major players, Advanced Info Service (SET: ADVANC) and True Corporation (SET: TRUE), remain heavily owned by investors, with earnings already elevated post-industry consolidation—leaving limited room for further earnings-driven rerating in the near term.
Nevertheless, Thai telecoms are seen as effective portfolio stabilizers due to their consistent cash flow profiles, resilient operating models, and defensive nature. Historically, the sector has outperformed during bouts of market uncertainty, thanks to the inelastic demand for its services, improving pricing power following industry restructuring, and effective inflation pass-through.
While near-term catalysts are currently sparse, investor attention will turn towards the upcoming auctions for the 2100MHz and 3500MHz spectrum bands in the second half of 2026. In the meantime, sector earnings are expected to continue growing both sequentially and year-on-year, supported by sustained demand in both mobile and fixed broadband markets, continued cost-efficiency drives, and spectrum cost savings.
Although KGI anticipates a slight softening in earnings momentum through the second and third quarters of 2026, growth is forecast to reaccelerate by the final quarter of the year, fueled by the tourism season’s peak, the launch of the iPhone 18, and a recovery in consumer spending. A stronger rebound in average revenue per user and subscriber growth could also spur renewed investor interest, which is anticipated to become more visible in Q4.
Consumer-driven growth is anticipated to remain at the heart of sector expansion for the next two to three years, powered by mobile and FBB segments. Key drivers include a sustained tourism recovery, cross-selling and upselling activities, and ongoing improvements in FBB penetration as the market remains underpenetrated.
Jasmine International (SET: JAS)’s recent acquisition of FIFA broadcasting rights through 2030, however, is not seen as a significant near-term catalyst for telecom players, as JAS is expected to commercialize content on its own, with limited impact on subscriber or ARPU growth—even if partnerships form, as evidenced during its previous English Premier League rights tenure.
Looking ahead, enterprise businesses such as cloud services and data centers present an additional growth avenue but currently contribute only 2–5% of sector core revenue, meaning any meaningful earnings uplift from these areas remains several years away. In the short term, there is no evidence of price competition re-emerging within the market, according to the brokerage.
Regarding earnings outlook, KGI forecasts sector core earnings to grow by 23% in 2026 and 9% in 2027 year-on-year, with TRUE and ADVANC contributing 39% and 61%, respectively, to this growth in 2026—attributable mainly to larger spectrum cost savings at TRUE. KGI’s sector core profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 surpass consensus by 22% and 19%, respectively.
In addition, since the robust 1Q26 reporting season, consensus forecasts have seen upgrades for 2026 and 2027 sector earnings by 12% and 10% year-to-date, up from 8% and 9% in March 2026. Sector earnings in 2026 are expected to benefit from a full year of spectrum savings, lower financing costs, higher ARPUs, and ongoing subscriber gains.
From a valuation and strategic perspective, KGI sustains a ‘Neutral’ sector stance, balancing a lack of near-term catalysts and high investor ownership. Both ADVANC and TRUE maintain ‘Outperform’ ratings, with particular favor given to TRUE for the third quarter of 2026, supported by its compelling 7.7x EV/EBITDA valuation, robust 2026 core EPS growth (+31% YoY), and consistent quarterly dividend payments.
By comparison, ADVANC’s premium valuation reflects its stronger profitability metrics, high returns on equity, and steady 5% dividend yield, positioning it as a reliable long-term compounding investment.
