Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on July 2, 2026, that the Thai market remains neutral to slightly positive, with a potential to move sideways within range as investors await the U.S. Non-Farm payroll data to gauge the direction of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
Recently, U.S. employment figures have tended to surpass market expectations, pushing U.S. government bond yields higher and exerting pressure on capital markets, particularly on risk assets, technology stocks, and high-growth equities, as they are more sensitive to interest rate movements.
However, KSS noted that previously strong employment numbers may partly stem from temporary hiring ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The figure for June, which is pending release, might still benefit from this factor. Once this period passes, KSS expects the U.S. labor market to show signs of easing.
Should employment figures come in below expectations, the market could react positively, as it would support the perception that inflation is slowing. This would likely reinforce confidence that the Fed’s interest rate cycle will not turn back upwards, remaining stable for a while before gradual reductions in the future.
For the Thai stock market, KSS set the key resistance level for the SET Index at 1,600 points, with potential to test 1,610 if surpassed. The support level is at 1,577 points. The securities firm recommends gradually accumulating core theme stocks, especially those that benefit from the new CAPEX cycle, supported by investments in technology and AI infrastructure across Asia.
KSS also sees commercial banks as attractive, particularly KBANK and KTB, given potential gains from loan growth, wealth management expansion, and investment trends in both the public and private sectors, which could drive fee income and profit quality.
In addition, other large banks—such as SCB and BBL—are also poised to recover alongside the investment cycle. KTB remains a sector leader, boasting high return on equity (ROE) and better asset quality relative to peers.
For short-term picks, KSS highlights IVL for its likely earnings beat and improved U.S. product spreads, as well as AOT and BH, which fit the De-escalation themes and the recovery of the services sector in the latter half of the year.
