Analysts have released differing views on Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (SET: AOT) following its fiscal third quarter performance, as the company delivered robust earnings but continues to face headwinds from rising competition and changing passenger patterns.
HSBC retained a ‘Reduce’ rating on AOT with a target price of THB48, citing a risk/reward profile skewed to the downside after the recent share rally. The bank highlighted that AOT’s EBIT for the third quarter grew 1% year-on-year, surpassing consensus estimates by 6% with an improved margin, primarily due to lower staff costs. However, non-aeronautical revenues remained weak, and HSBC noted intensifying competition in short-haul travel. The bank trimmed its FY27-28 earnings forecasts by 3-7%, citing these competitive pressures.
In contrast, Citi maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on AOT after it reported core profits of THB3.9 billion for the June quarter, marking a 5% year-on-year increase but a 32% decline quarter-on-quarter. This figure beat Bloomberg consensus by 22%, with nine-month FY26 earnings reaching 73-74% of Citi and Street full-year estimates. While total passenger traffic fell 4% year-on-year, international and domestic figures reached 86% and 79% of pre-Covid levels, respectively.
Other notables from Citi’s report include a 14% quarter-on-quarter drop in non-aeronautical concession revenue, though gross concession revenue per international passenger remained above pre-Covid levels. Cash reserves improved, while operating cash flow and employee expenses both declined, the latter due to a reassessment of bonus costs amid the Middle East conflict. The company’s account receivable days increased quarter-on-quarter.
Overall, AOT’s recent results demonstrated resilient cost control but also highlighted challenges amid evolving market dynamics and competitive pressures.
