Morgan Stanley has issued a series of short-term “Research Tactical Idea” calls on Thai-listed stocks, naming Thai Oil (TOP), Bangkok Bank (BBL) and Airports of Thailand (AOT) as tactical buys, while closing out a prior call on Kasikornbank (KBANK).
Thai Oil (TOP)
Morgan Stanley expects a challenging second quarter of 2026 for refiners due to inventory-related losses, but says underlying profitability will likely be far stronger than in 2025. The bank sees a 2027 earnings upgrade cycle picking up after the second-quarter reporting season.
TOP trades at 0.6x 2027 estimated price-to-book, which Morgan Stanley views as undemanding given a gross refining margin of US$12 per barrel, compared with a market-implied US$6 per barrel and the bank’s own 2026 estimate of US$7.5 per barrel. While rising fuel exports from Asia may pull product margins down from recent highs, Morgan Stanley expects the “refining golden age” to accelerate in coming quarters as physical crude discounts widen and Thailand’s government eases price caps and product export restrictions.
The bank believes TOP’s share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 30 days, with an estimated probability of 80%+ (“highly likely”).
Bangkok Bank (BBL)
Morgan Stanley calls BBL a laggard, trading at 0.6x 2026 estimated price-to-book — the cheapest Thai bank in its coverage. While sentiment toward Thai banks has improved since mid-June, the bank sees room for BBL to catch up given its valuation discount versus peers, whose valuations now look fuller.
Morgan Stanley believes BBL’s share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 30 days, with an estimated probability of 80%+.
Kasikornbank (KBANK) — Closed
Morgan Stanley has closed its tactical idea on KBANK after the share price rose in line with its expectations.
Airports of Thailand (AOT)
Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating on AOT with a target price of Bt80, forecasting the share price will rise relative to the SET index over the next 45 days, with an estimated probability of 80%+.
The bank points to AOT’s strengthening infrastructure story, with the worst impact on passenger traffic likely behind it as fuel costs normalize. Morgan Stanley estimates that every 0.5 million change in international passenger numbers affects earnings by 2.2% and net asset value by 1.3%. AOT trades at 16x FY2027 EV/EBITDA, about one standard deviation below its 10-year average, with a return on equity of around 20% and roughly 25 years remaining on its concession agreement — levels Morgan Stanley considers undemanding.
