TISCO Economic Strategy Unit (TISCO ESU), under TISCO Financial Group Public Company Limited, has released its investment strategy for the second half of 2026, emphasizing diversified portfolios away from highly popular and concentrated stocks, particularly in the semiconductor industry. The sharp price increases in this sector have resulted in significantly higher valuations and volatility.
TISCO ESU highlights the energy and basic materials sectors as industries to watch, driven by the recovery in the commodity cycle. This is reflected in notable upgrades to 2026 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. If there is a rotation of capital out of technology and AI, there is a high probability that these funds will flow into the energy and materials sectors, supporting future returns.
During the first half of the year, global stock markets faced volatility due to several factors—including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, energy price fluctuations, and strict monetary policies by several major central banks. Despite periodic market recoveries, gains have remained concentrated in technology and semiconductor stocks, reflecting speculative behavior beyond reasonable levels.
Should monetary conditions tighten again in the latter half of the year, particularly if the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate hikes, financial and leverage costs will rise. This is likely to diminish incentives for borrowing to speculate and help cool down the market. Such a shift would signal an era where fundamentals, portfolio diversification, and selective asset valuation grow increasingly important.
Additionally, there has been rapid growth in Leveraged ETFs and Leveraged Single Stocks—especially those tracking the Nasdaq, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), and large technology companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This points to investors’ intensifying efforts to seek higher returns.
