Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on August 13, 2026, that the Thai stock market may potentially recover today, following the U.S. July inflation figures coming in as expected and showing signs of peaking. This has eased concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Additionally, average monthly crude oil prices have continued to decline from May to August, which helps limit inflationary pressures in the energy and food sectors. The impact of tariffs in the following period is expected to decrease due to a high base. Meanwhile, the U.S. labor market is starting to weaken, leading KSS to believe that the Fed is likely to maintain interest rates to further monitor the inflation trend.
These factors support a selective risk-on investment approach, opening opportunities for fund inflows toward emerging markets and specific groups of stocks. KSS estimates that the SET Index will move sideways-up today, with key resistance levels at 1,627 and 1,635 points, and a support level at 1,610 points.
Regarding the latest MSCI index review, Thai stocks remain at 18 securities in the MSCI Global Standard Index and 64 in the MSCI Small Cap Index. Mr. Koraphat estimated that the Thai benchmark will see a net fund inflow of about $15 million, even as its weight in the main index remains around 1%, while the small-cap group increases from 2.5% to 2.6%. This is considered neutral-to-positive, especially compared to regional markets like South Korea and Indonesia, which saw weight reductions.
Among the Thai equities with increased weight in the main index are PTTEP, expected to attract around $23 million, and TRUE, about $17.5 million. In the small-cap group, HANA is estimated to see inflows of approximately $10 million, and GUNKUL around $8 million.
KSS also sees a chance for Thai stocks to gain further weight in the November MSCI review. THAI is one to watch, having resumed trading and met the MSCI observation period, while its free float structure has become more stable.
For investment strategy, KSS recommends KCE, citing improved performance and profitability, expecting stronger earnings in the second half of the year compared to the first, with a target price around THB 54. HANA benefits from inclusion in the MSCI Small Cap, while GULF gains from progress in Thailand’s power development plan (PDP). KSS identifies a support level for GULF THB 65 and a resistance level at THB 67 – 68.
Mr. Koraphat added that listed company earnings prospects are a key positive factor, with market consensus for the Thai bourse’s earnings-per-share rising to around THB 106, higher than KSS’s previous assumption of THB 96 used to estimate the SET Index target at 1,680 points. This indicates the current market rally is supported not only by valuation expansion, but also by improving fundamentals.
KSS believes the investment cycle in Thailand is showing signs of recovery, spreading across several industries. Positive signals are also emerging from banking sector loans in the first half of the year. Therefore, the analyst firm may revise its profit forecast and target level following the full announcement of second-quarter 2026 results.
