KGI Upgrades Thai Property Sector to ‘Neutral’ Amid Earnings Rebound in 2Q26

Thailand’s listed property developers delivered a notable rebound in second-quarter 2026 performance, according to KGI Securities (Thailand). Combined earnings surged 43% QoQ to THB 4.9 billion, though results fell 9% YoY. Aggregate revenue reached THB 38.5 billion, representing an 18% increase QoQ but a 4% decrease YoY. The sector’s net margin improved by 2 percentage points QoQ to 13.5%, while the gross margin held at 27%.

The revenue upswing was driven by stronger condominium sales. Among the companies, Supalai (SET: SPALI) took the lead with THB 1.65 billion in net profit—rising 49% YoY and 310% QoQ—buoyed by a THB 900 million share of profits from Australian joint ventures. In contrast, L.P.N. Development (SET: LPN) recorded the sector’s weakest performance, posting a net loss of THB 21 million.

AP (Thailand) (SET: AP) and Sansiri (SET: SIRI) posted net profits of THB 1,063 million (+6% YoY, +18% QoQ) and THB 1,005 million (-17% YoY, +16% QoQ), respectively, meeting expectations. Land and Houses (SET: LH) reported earnings well below forecast at THB 526 million—a decrease of 62% YoY and 24% QoQ—due to the absence of one-off gains and a drop in gross margin to 22.4%.

Pruksa Holding (SET: PSH) exceeded expectations, reporting net profit of THB 141 million, supported by tight cost control and resilient performance from its hospital business. Quality Houses (SET: QH) earned THB 458 million, up 37% YoY, led mainly by contributions from associates.

For the first half of 2026, combined net profit dropped 5% YoY to THB 8.5 billion with overall revenue flat at THB 71 billion. SPALI remained sector leader at THB 2.05 billion profit, half of which came from Australian joint ventures. AP earned THB 1.97 billion (+5% YoY), and SIRI THB 1.87 billion (-8% YoY). PSH achieved the highest earnings growth (up 121%), and QH saw a 25% YoY rise in 1H26 profit, mainly due to contributions from HMPRO and LHFG.

Following the 2Q26 results, KGI forecasts for PSH, LPN, LH, and QH are under review due to significant deviations from previous expectations. Profit contributions from associates and non-residential segments surpassed estimates, and the property sector’s outlook is expected to improve gradually, peaking in the fourth quarter of 2026. Additional upside may arise from increasing consumer confidence and potential GDP upgrades.

As a result, the brokerage upgraded its sector view to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underweight’. SIRI and AP are rated ‘Outperform,’ while SPALI and LH hold ‘Neutral’ ratings. ORI, LPN, QH, and PSH are assigned ‘Underperform’.