On Tuesday at 11:13 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) surged 3.13% or THB 2.00 to THB 66.00, with a trading value of THB 1.37 billion.
IRPC Public Company Limited (SET: IRPC) rose by 3.33% or THB 0.10 to THB 3.10, with a trading value of THB 781.71 million.
According to a report by Bloomberg, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC), the state-owned oil company of the United Arab Emirates, is currently in negotiations to invest in major oil refinery operations in Thailand and across Africa. The objective of these talks is to secure a stable customer base for ADNOC’s crude oil exports while concurrently expanding its fuel trading business.
InnovestX Securities highlighted that the scope of these discussions extends beyond mere equity investments. The agreements may also encompass long-term crude oil supply contracts with the targeted refineries, allowing ADNOC to supply its crude directly. Furthermore, ADNOC may gain rights to distribute finished petroleum products produced at these refineries to other customers.
One of the key factors attracting ADNOC to refineries in Thailand is their ability to process heavy crude oil, which aligns well with the composition of oil extracted from Abu Dhabi’s offshore concessions. In addition, ADNOC’s trading arm could potentially supply crude oil from other sources, such as Iraq, to Thai refineries.
This move underscores ADNOC’s strategic initiative to establish an international refining footprint. By expanding its market base and trading activities beyond the Gulf region, ADNOC aims to diversify its operations and mitigate supply and transport risks associated with exporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
It should be noted, however, that these negotiations remain in the early stages, and no formal agreements have been reached. Both ADNOC and PTT, Thailand’s state-owned oil and gas conglomerate, have yet to comment on these reports. Investors are therefore recommended to monitor subsequent announcements for greater clarity on the details and conditions of any potential deals, according to InnovestX.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) offered a positive long-term outlook on the ongoing search for a strategic partner for subsidiaries under PTT, as part of the Genesis project. If a partnership is ultimately secured with ADNOC—which is among the world’s leading producers of crude oil—it could deliver significant benefits to PTT and its subsidiaries.
A strategic partnership with ADNOC is expected to enhance the capacity to procure low-cost crude oil from the Middle East, while also facilitating the export of refined petroleum products to markets outside Southeast Asia. This would align with PTT’s long-term strategy aimed at expanding its trading business on the global stage.
On a company-specific basis, Thai Oil is expected to secure more stable crude supply for its Clean Fuel Project (CFP), while PTTGC and IRPC could benefit from improved long-term feedstock procurement.
Nonetheless, there is currently no clear indication as to which PTT subsidiary—TOP, PTTGC, or IRPC—ADNOC is interested in investing in under the Genesis project, nor is the investment structure or progress on talks with other potential strategic partners known at this stage.
In the short term, Krungsri noted that concerns over potential capital increases at PTT’s subsidiaries, including TOP, PTTGC, and IRPC, may weigh on their share prices. However, the brokerage views any resulting price dips as buying opportunities.
Should negotiations with a strategic partner conclude in line with Genesis project plans, there remains a possibility that subsidiaries may issue new shares to accommodate the new partner. This would help prevent PTT’s ownership stakes from being overly diluted and potentially losing control.
While this could impact existing shareholders through dilution, the longer-term benefits derived from securing a major international partner—particularly as the subsidiaries’ financial performance and business outlooks recover—may prove to be of greater significance. Moreover, this strengthened position would likely provide the company with higher bargaining power relative to 2025 levels.
