Tanapon Prapapan, Investor Relations Manager at PTT Public Company Limited (SET: PTT), revealed that the company’s performance in the second half of this year will largely depend on global market product prices.
Crude oil prices are anticipated to decline slightly, with the average price projected to hover between $63-73 per barrel. Meanwhile, the petrochemical segment continues to face pressure from the influx of new supply. However, if crude oil prices remain stable compared to the first half of the year, the company expects lower or potentially no stock loss in 2H25.
Regarding the gas business, the outlook for 2H remains positive, although sales volume may drop due to seasonal factors. However, gas costs are expected to ease, following a downward trend in liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices. Furthermore, gas separation plant production is anticipated to rise in 4Q25 owing to reduced maintenance shutdowns.
On structural changes, PTT recently restructured its stake in Horizon Plus Company Limited— a joint venture between Arun Plus Company Limited and Lin Yin International Investment Co., Ltd. Arun Plus reduced its holding from 60% to 40%, as PTT Group lacked expertise in this business sector and thus opted to let its partner take a leading role.
Analysts at Krungsri Securities note that PTT’s normalized profit in 3Q25 is expected to recover, thanks to less volatile crude oil prices that would prevent substantial stock losses in refining and petrochemical businesses.
Additionally, refining margins and petrochemical spreads are forecasted to improve compared to the same period last year due to tighter supply, offsetting the decrease in gas business performance linked to lower demand from power plant customers.
Compared to the previous quarter, declining demand from power plant customers and falling sales prices continue to pressure profits across gas supply, pipelines, and separation units.
Nonetheless, analysts maintain a “Neutral” recommendation, with an end-2025 target price of THB 32.50 per share. Investors are advised to hold for dividend yields of approximately 6% while awaiting clarity on long-term gas pricing structure adjustments.
In the short-term, there are no significant catalysts, with most 3Q25 non-core asset divestments expected to be non-cash. Profit growth for 2025-2026 is forecasted to remain stable, increasing by an average of 2%.
