Ms. Siriwong Borvornboonrutai, Co-President – Finance and Accounting of B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited (SET: BGRIM), has a positive view on the company’s performance in the second half of this year, following a series of commercialization of its clean power plants and new contract with industrial users.
This positive outlook is mainly attributed to the gradual commercial operation date (COD) of new projects. These include the ARECO solar power project in the Philippines, with a generating capacity of 65 MW, and the offshore wind power project Nakwol in South Korea, which will begin COD this year with approximately 100 MW, and will reach full-year COD in 2026. Additionally, there will be further solar power projects totaling 125 MW.
Meanwhile, electricity sales to industrial users (IU) are expected to increase by more than 30 MW in the second half of this year. Currently, the company is negotiating power purchase agreements (PPA) with IU customers, particularly those with upcoming contract expirations and new clients. These negotiations involve a new electricity pricing formula to allow for cost pass-through to this customer group. The company expects these negotiations to progress and take effect towards the end of this year or early next year.
Regarding natural gas prices, BGRIM anticipates prices to decrease to between USD 310–330 per million BTU in the second half of the year. At the same time, there is increasing electricity demand from data centers investing in Thailand, particularly in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), representing an opportunity for the company to supply electricity to this fast-growing sector.
The company is currently in negotiations with several data center operators and expects to sign agreements with about 2–3 parties. The influx of data centers is also expected to benefit the country. It is estimated that the national electricity reserve will be sufficient for the next 2–3 years; however, if substantial investments persist over the next 5–10 years, the adequacy of national electricity reserves will require closer scrutiny.
For BGRIM’s power plant projects in Vietnam, discussions have taken place with Vietnam Electricity (EVN) regarding the tariff structure and the company continues to monitor the situation closely. Positive signals for negotiations are anticipated, with the official announcement expected within this year. Currently, the company’s projects still recognize 100% of revenue, but in the worst-case scenario, future cash flow will need to be reassessed for any necessary asset impairment. The impact is not expected to be retroactive, and management is confident that even in the worst-case scenario (such as a tariff reduction by EVN), the projects will still be able to meet their debt and interest payment obligations to banks as scheduled.
Ms. Siriwong also commented on the progress of the partnership between BGRIM and Digital Edge (Singapore) Holdings Limited, a leading data center platform provider in Asia, in which BGRIM holds a 40% stake in the JV. The partnership aims to develop a 96 MW hyperscale data center valued at THB 24,520 million in the EEC, aiming to become a key hub for AI and cloud service providers expanding in Southeast Asia. The project is progressing as planned. It will begin with a capacity of 100 MW, with plans to expand the collaboration to 300 MW over the next five years, with a total investment of THB 80,000–100,000 million.
Analysts at Krungsri Securities forecast that BGRIM’s net profit will recover, averaging 17% growth in 2025–2027 based on the assumption of full COD for the 179 MW (Equity MW) Nakwol1 project in 2026, and improved gross margins from lower gas feedstock costs in 2026–2027, reducing to THB 302 per million BTU and THB 281 per million BTU respectively (compared to this year’s THB 330 per million BTU). Therefore, they maintain their estimates and Neutral recommendation with a target price of THB 11.20, as BGRIM is seen as waiting for a recovery next year. Key factors to monitor include potential delays in the COD of the Nakwol 1, declining IU power sales volumes, and possible tariff adjustments by EVN in Vietnam.
