FSS International Investment Advisory Securities (FSSIA) expects Sansiri Public Company Limited (SET: SIRI) to deliver a strong positive momentum in its fourth quarter of 2025 financial results.
Net profit is projected to reach THB 1.44 billion, surging 44% quarter-on-quarter and 16% year-on-year, marking the highest quarterly profit in two years. Excluding a non-recurring gain of approximately THB 120 million from land sales related to two new joint venture projects, SIRI’s normalized profit is estimated at THB 1.32 billion (up 44% QoQ and 10% YoY).
The sharp earnings acceleration is primarily driven by expected real estate transfers of THB 9.5 billion (+38% QoQ, +5% YoY), supported by a robust pickup in condominium transfers totaling THB 4.3 billion (+56% QoQ, +59% YoY) from the handover of four newly-completed projects with a cumulative project value of THB 4.9 billion and an average sell-through rate of 57%. Meanwhile, landed property (low-rise) transfers are forecast to be THB 5.2 billion, a 26% QoQ recovery despite an 18% YoY decline, primarily backed by backlog realization.
FSSIA identifies a favorable mixed project impact in 4Q25, owing to the higher proportion of condo transfers with improved margins and strong sales response in new low-rise projects in Phuket. Gross margin for property sales is predicted to rise to 31% in 4Q25, up from 29.8% in 3Q25 and 27.7% in 4Q24.
SIRI is also anticipated to book a profit share from JVs of about THB 230 million in 4Q25—a YoY decrease of 40%, but rebounding from THB 49 million in 3Q25, spearheaded by transfers at a newly-completed JV condo project valued at THB 1.8 billion and a sales rate of 59%. Additional income of around THB 75 million from the earn-out of The Standard is expected in the quarter. On the cost side, SG&A expenses are predicted to rise QoQ, mostly reflecting higher staff benefit costs.
Assuming 4Q25 results meet projections, SIRI’s normalized net profit for the full year 2025 would be approximately THB 4.1 billion, down 16% YoY but about 5% above FSSIA’s earlier estimates.
Looking ahead, FSSIA maintains its 2026 core profit estimate of THB 4.4 billion (+8.5% YoY) for SIRI, despite the company’s conservative business plan with a slight YoY reduction in new project launches and presales targets. The anticipated profit growth throughout 2026 will be driven by transfers from 10 newly-completed condominium projects worth a total THB 23 billion (with 39% presold), along with backlog carry-over of around THB 10.6 billion from end-2025.
FSSIA expects 1Q26 to be the earnings trough for SIRI, followed by a gradual quarterly recovery and a stronger showing in the second half of 2026.
On valuation, FSSIA maintains its ‘BUY’ rating on SIRI with a target price of THB 1.55 per share, reflecting expectations of continued profit growth in 4Q25 both QoQ and YoY. SIRI is now trading at 5.4x PE for 2026, below its historical average and the sector average, presenting an attractive opportunity for investors. The company is expected to pay a 2H25 dividend of THB 0.08 per share, implying a healthy 5.8% yield.
