Krungsri Securities (KSS) has maintained its “BUY” recommendation for Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG), setting a target price at THB 60 after reviewing the company’s latest financial performance. According to KSS analysis, CBG’s fourth-quarter of 2025 and full-year 2025 core profits came in line with Bloomberg’s consensus estimates.
For 4Q25, CBG reported a core profit of THB 660 million, marking a 16% year-on-year decrease. The decline was primarily driven by a significant drop in CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) sales, which shrank 53% YoY to THB 614 million and accounted for approximately 11% of total sales. However, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, CLMV sales showed a notable recovery, increasing by 9%. KSS notes that this rebound hints the adverse impact from Cambodian border conflicts, which have weighed on CBG since the end of the second quarter of 2025, may have bottomed out.
The company’s net profit stood at THB 142 million, reflecting an 82% decline YoY and a 77% fall QoQ. This steep decrease was attributed to a one-time impairment loss of THB 518 million on goodwill related to its investment in Carabao Holdings (HK). When excluding this impairment, core profit declined by 16% year-on-year.
Overall sales dipped by 6% YoY, reaching THB 5.6 billion, mainly due to the aforementioned slump in CLMV revenues. On the brighter side, domestic energy drink sales rose 2% YoY to THB 2.1 billion, while third-party distribution sales climbed 8% YoY to THB 2.4 billion. Nevertheless, gross margin fell 0.6 percentage points to 26.1%, largely because overseas sales generally accrue higher margins and the drop in CLMV sales weighed heavily on profitability.
Operational costs, measured by selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) to sales, also climbed by 0.5 percentage points YoY to 11.6%, a rise attributed to weaker sales momentum.
Looking ahead, KSS forecasts CBG’s sales to grow by 15% in 2026 to THB 25.4 billion — slightly below the company’s guidance of 20%. The key driver is expected to be a 21% increase in domestic sales to THB 20.4 billion, while overseas sales are projected to decline by 17% to THB 3.4 billion, reflecting the high base of CLMV sales in the first half of 2025.
KSS values CBG at 19.4x 2026 forecasted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, while currently the company is being traded at about 15.1x 2026F P/E — which is around one standard deviation below its historical long-term average. CBG remains KSS’ top pick in the beverage sector, underpinned by an expected 9% year-on-year EPS growth in 2026, supported by strength in both domestic energy drinks and Khaohom liquor, as well as an attractive valuation.
Nonetheless, key risks include the ongoing Cambodian border conflicts and the sluggish pace of domestic consumption recovery, both of which could continue to affect CBG’s sales and profitability.
