On Tuesday, the share price of STECON Group Public Company Limited (SET: STECON) closed at THB 12.5, a THB 2.30 or 22.55% increase with a total trading value of THB 1,350.62 million.
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has upgraded its outlook on STECON, raising the 2026 core profit forecast by 31%. This notable revision primarily reflects the positive surprise from dividend income earned from Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF), whose dividend per share (DPS) for 2025 surged from THB 1 to THB 3.25.
Following this upward revision, KKPS has increased its price objective (PO) for STECON to THB 11.4 from THB 10.7, based on its sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology. This model blends the target price-to-earnings ratio (PER) and discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, factoring in STECON’s 1.52% equity stake in GULF. Additionally, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) was revised slightly downward from 13.5% to 13.1%, a move reflecting lower market risk (reduced beta) in current conditions.
STECON outperformed expectations with the announcement of a 2025 DPS of THB 0.55, exceeding KKPS’ projection of THB 0.33 and representing a 5.4% yield with a 43% payout rate. Analysts continue to recommend a “Buy” rating, highlighting STECON’s trading discount to its expected book value (BV) of THB 11.5 per share at year-end 2025. The company is also set for a robust return on equity (ROE) of 11.4% in 2025—the highest in the past seven years.
Financial performance in 4Q25 was particularly strong, with a reported net profit of THB 931 million, marking a 470% quarter-on-quarter increase and a significant turnaround from the net loss of THB 2.2 billion in 4Q24. The previous year’s fourth quarter results had been negatively affected by a THB 1 billion expected credit loss on the Clean Fuel Project and THB 170 million in impairment on condominium assets.
When one-off gains are excluded—principally the THB 610 million reversal of expected credit loss (ECL) for the Clean Fuel Project—core profit still reached THB 336 million in 4Q25, up by 106% QoQ. This marks a solid reversal from the THB 1.2 billion core loss in 4Q24. Notably, this result exceeded consensus forecasts by 38% and came in 48% above KKPS’ own expectation, thanks to lower-than-anticipated selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses.
For the full year, STECON’s net profit reached THB 1.95 billion in 2025, compared to a net loss of THB 2.26 billion in 2024. Similarly, core earnings turned around from a loss of THB 1.27 billion in 2024 to a profit of THB 1.09 billion in 2025, surpassing forecasts by 10%.
A significant driver was the strong construction sales, which hit THB 10.5 billion in 4Q25, the highest quarterly figure for the year and up 36% year-on-year and 41% quarter-on-quarter. This was attributed to progress in delayed projects, particularly the Denchai-Chiang Rai-Chiang Khong dual-track railway, previously hampered by heavy rainfall in 3Q25.
The gross profit margin improved to 7.3% in 4Q25 from 7% in 3Q25, compared with a negative 13.1% in 4Q24. Moreover, recurring income reached THB 115 million, accounting for 1.1% of total revenue, and SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 75 basis points QoQ to 2.7%. The effective tax rate remained stable at 20%.
Looking ahead, KKPS predicts an impressive first quarter in 2026, driven by continuing momentum in the construction business and robust dividend income from GULF. The first half of 2026 is expected to contribute around 60 – 65% of the full-year earnings forecast. Earnings upside could also arise from new investments, as recurring income projects are estimated to contribute around 1.2% of total revenue in 2026.
