Goldman Sachs has updated its earnings outlook for Thai energy giants PTT Public Company Limited (SET: PTT) and PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (SET: PTTEP) following the release of their fourth quarter 2025 results, maintaining Buy ratings for both companies and raising their 12-month target prices.
For PTT, Goldman revised its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates downward by 5.7% and 2.6%, respectively, reflecting the latest reported results, subsidiary earnings forecasts, and a reduced 2026 Brent crude price forecast of US$65 per barrel (down from US$70). Despite these revisions, the research introduces a 2028 earnings per share (EPS) estimate of Bt4.19 for PTT and lifts the 12-month target price to Bt40, up from Bt35, as the valuation base is rolled forward to 2027. The change also incorporates a narrower net asset value (NAV) discount in their sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation to 5%, from the previous 10%.
Goldman remains bullish on PTT, citing an anticipated 26% compound annual EBITDA growth rate (CAGR) for its downstream gas business from 2025 to 2027, buoyed by higher oil prices and increased global LNG supply expected in 2027. PTT is also forecast to offer a robust 2026 free cash flow (FCF) yield of 8% and a dividend yield of 6%.
For PTTEP, Goldman revised its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates upward by 1% and 4.3%, respectively, factoring in the latest results, more conservative operating expenditure, and adjustments to gas average selling prices, while also applying the lower Brent price forecast. A new 2028 EPS estimate for PTTEP is set at Bt0.49. The 12-month target price is increased to Bt155 from Bt140, based on a higher 2027E EV/DACF (enterprise value to debt-adjusted cash flow) multiple of 3.7x, reflecting a normalization in long-term oil demand expectations.
PTTEP’s share price is currently discounting a Brent price of US$60 per barrel for 2027, compared to Goldman’s estimate of US$70 per barrel, and the analyst expects the oil market could enter a deficit in the second half of 2027. While PTTEP’s 2026 and 2027 FCF yields are expected to be near breakeven, strong balance sheets should continue to support attractive dividend yields of 5-6% in 2026 and 2027.
Key downside risks for both companies include lower-than-expected oil prices, weaker margin environments, and potential return dilution from M&A activities.
