Thai Rubber Stocks Rally as Middle East Tensions and El Niño Drought Bolster Pricing

At the end of the morning session on Friday, the share price of Sri Trang Agro-Industry Public Company Limited (SET: STA) advanced by 7.63% or THB 1.00 to THB 14.10, with a trading value of THB 180.19 million.

Thai Eastern Group Holdings Public Company Limited (SET: TEGH) rose by 0.65% or THB 0.02 to THB 3.12, with a trading value of THB 3.00 million.

North East Rubber Public Company Limited (SET: NER) surged by 1.72% or THB 0.08 to THB 4.74, with a trading value of THB 52.59 million.

Thai Rubber Latex Group Public Company Limited (SET: TRUBB) grew by 4.48% or THB 0.03 to THB 0.70, with a trading value of THB 837,060.

 

Kasikorn Securities (KS) stated that rubber stocks have risen, benefitting from the increase in RSS3 rubber futures prices on the Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM). This rise is mainly driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed oil prices higher. As a result, downstream products, especially synthetic rubber, have also seen price increases, consequently boosting the price of natural rubber.

Even in the absence of Middle East tensions, the outlook for rubber prices this year remains positive, with expectations of further increases due to El Niño-induced drought, which has led to a reduction in rubber output. In Thailand, some rubber farmers have switched to palm oil cultivation due to better pricing.

The analyst noted that STA’s share price tends to move in line with SICOM. The company’s management stated that this year’s rise in rubber prices has lifted the company’s average selling price, resulting in sales growth and improved gross profit margin (GPM). At present, tire manufacturers are stepping up their orders.

 

Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) also commented that STA’s management set a target for sales volume to grow by 13% year-on-year in 2026, supported by recovering purchase orders. The rubber price outlook for the year is expected to remain high or even rise further, reflecting the expectation that Thai rubber supply will decrease due to reduced cultivation areas.

The company is projected to return to profit in the first quarter of 2026, from a loss in the fourth quarter of 2025, and is expected to see year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2026 as customers have placed orders through the period.

The average selling price is forecast to rise to 200 cents per kilogram, up 9% quarter-on-quarter and steady year-on-year, and sales volume is anticipated to accelerate in the second half of 2026.

Finansia has revised its 2026 net profit forecast for STA up by 15.6% to THB 1.49 billion, in response to rising sales volume and prices. The new target price is set at 16 baht per share, and the recommendation has been upgraded to ‘Buy.’