At the end of the morning session on Friday, the share price of Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC) gained 4.90% or THB 0.35 to THB 7.50, with a trading value of THB 275.72 million.
Kasikorn Securities (KS) notes that, as China, one of the major exporters of refined oil products in Asia, implements measures to restrict or ban the export of such products, this leads to a decrease in supply in the market. The impact is not limited to key markets like Singapore but extends to other countries across the region as well.
This situation has driven refining margins (GRM) to trend upward, particularly as tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved. This factor provides positive support for stocks in the oil refinery group. Among the companies expected to benefit are Thai Oil (TOP), Bangchak Corporation (BCP), and Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC).
These companies are anticipated to continue showing solid financial performance in the first quarter of 2026, with strong momentum likely extending into the second quarter, bolstered by sustained high refining margins.
As of March 5, 2026, the Singapore Complex Refining Margin has surged to nearly $22 per barrel, nearing the highest levels in Asia since 2022, driven by tight oil supplies and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The margin is a crucial indicator of the profitability of refineries in the region, including those in Thailand.
According to analyst comments since early 2026, the target price for TOP ranges between 42 and 54 baht per share, with the average estimate at around 44-53 baht. Most brokers maintain a ‘Buy’ or ‘Trading’ recommendation, buoyed by positive outlooks from the Clean Fuel Project (CFP) and recovering refining margins.
For BCP, the average target price is around 41-42 baht, with most analysts maintaining ‘Buy’ ratings due to positive factors such as the share repurchase program, long-term growth plans, and expectations of recovering refining margins. The highest target price is 54 baht.
As for SPRC, early 2026 saw upward revisions to target prices as refining margins improved and earnings exceeded expectations. Most brokers set the average target price between 7.20 and 9.10 baht per share, reflecting a positive outlook due to the earnings recovery. However, the major maintenance shutdown, scheduled for the first quarter of 2026, is suggested to be monitored.
