KGI Securities wrote in a review of Sansiri Public Company Limited (SET: SIRI), one of Thailand’s top property developers, that the company has maintained its position as a key player among both local and international homebuyers, holding the second spot in presales market share since 2019 with an increase from 14% to 20% over the past decade. In 2025, SIRI grew its presales by 2% year-on-year to THB 41.7 billion.
Product-wise, SIRI achieved a notable 40% YoY surge in condominium presales to THB 21 billion, while landed property presales declined 20% YoY to THB 20.7 billion. New project launches rose by 12%, mostly attributed to robust new condo launches totaling THB 27 billion, an increase of 39% YoY. Total project transfers—including joint ventures—fell 16% YoY due to a 23% YoY drop in landed property transfers, while condo transfers remained flat at THB 14.5 billion.
For the first quarter of 2026, KGI estimates presales of THB 10.9 billion, a decrease of 18.5% YoY but an increase of 17% quarter-on-quarter. However, earnings are expected to decline quarter-on-quarter due to a strong comparison base in the previous period.
Looking ahead, SIRI has issued a conservative business plan for 2026, forecasting a 2% YoY decline in new launches and presales to THB 51 billion and THB 41 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, total transfers are expected to increase by 6% YoY to THB 39 billion, driven by the expected completion of 10 condo projects valued at THB 23 billion.
The company’s competitive edge comes from strong brand recognition and a focus on the mid-to-high-end segments, along with significant presence in key tourism destinations such as Phuket, Pattaya, and Chiang Mai. Increasing the use of joint ventures is expected to accelerate expansion with manageable net gearing, while the ongoing interest rate down cycle could also provide a tailwind. Further, Sansiri aims to raise income from non-core businesses to 25% of total revenue by 2030.
KGI forecasts SIRI’s earnings to grow at a single-digit rate per year in 2026-2027. This outlook includes annual earnouts from the divestment of Standard International Holdings to Hyatt Corp, amounting to $17-18 million each year. Additional upside may come from the quick transfer of prebuilt condo projects worth THB 4.3 billion.
KGI initiates coverage on SIRI with an “Outperform” rating and a target price of THB 1.64, based on a 2026 forecast PE of 6.5x. Notably, Sansiri’s projected PE is among the lowest in the sector, coupled with the highest annual dividend yield approaching 10%.
Key risks include broader economic conditions, possible government stimulus, stringent lending measures due to high household debts, and minimum wage hikes.
