On Wednesday at 11:41 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of BCPG Public Company Limited (SET: BCPG) rose by 4.48% or THB 0.30 to THB 7.00, with a trading value of THB 63.34 million.
Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) estimates BCPG’s net profit for 1Q26 will reach THB 673 million, representing a 7% decline from the previous quarter but a remarkable 341% increase from the same period last year. The figure accounts for approximately 29% of the full-year profit estimate.
The sequential downturn in net profit is mainly attributed to lower revenue from the Monsoon wind power plant in Laos, which saw reduced wind speeds due to seasonal factors. Although the company’s combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants in the United States returned to normal operations after undergoing planned maintenance in the fourth quarter of 2025, this improvement was not sufficient to fully offset the revenue shortfall.
However, on a year-on-year basis, net profit saw substantial growth primarily due to significantly improved performance from the U.S.-based CCGT power plants. This was driven by a sharp increase in PJM capacity prices, which reflect surging demand, especially from data center operators that require large volumes of energy.
Additional support came both from the start of profit recognition from hydropower plants in Laos since mid-2025 and from a reduction in interest expenses, as BCPG successfully repaid some of its loans ahead of schedule. Further, the company recorded approximately THB 90 million in foreign exchange gains, offset somewhat by THB 28 million in hedging losses.
Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, FSS anticipates BCPG’s net profit will remain stable or decline slightly compared to the previous quarter, as this marks the low season for wind energy production. Nevertheless, year-on-year performance is expected to remain strong, underpinned by contributions from a 260-megawatt wind farm in Laos that started commercial operations (COD) in mid-2025, as well as by benefits from recent electricity tariff increases.
Notably, any adjustment in Thai electricity rates is expected to have only a minor impact on the company’s overall performance, given that more than 90% of its power assets are located outside Thailand. The brokerage maintains the projection for BCPG’s net profit to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% from 2026 to 2028.
In addition, BCPG aims for its EBITDA in 2026 to grow by 18.5% from the previous year, driven mainly by improved results from CCGT plants in the United States. These assets stand to benefit from the sharp rise in PJM market capacity prices, which surged to $389 per megawatt per day for the 2026–2027 auction cycle, compared to $270 per megawatt per day in June 2025. This price hike is largely in response to the increasing electricity demand from data centers.
BCPG will also benefit from the full-year revenue contribution of the new wind farm in Laos and the commencement of commercial operations at its new solar project in Taiwan, both of which will further diversify and strengthen its regional renewable energy portfolio.
FSS has reiterated a ‘Buy’ recommendation for BCPG, setting a target price of THB 9.20 per share. The downside risk for the stock price is viewed as limited, given its currently attractive valuation—trading at a P/E ratio below the -2 standard deviation range. The brokerage also forecasts core earnings growth of 69% and 14.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
