Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) projects Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (SET: CENTEL) will report a robust 13% year-on-year rise in core profit for 1Q26, reaching a quarterly record high of THB 900 million. This growth is primarily attributed to the strong performance of new and existing hotels in the Maldives, which offset ongoing weakness in the Dubai market.
In the first quarter, CENTEL’s overall RevPAR (revenue per available room) for Thai hotels was flat YoY, although removing the impact of renovations in Krabi and Hua Hin, RevPAR would show an increase of 4-6%.
Notably, Maldives hotels saw RevPAR surge by 40% YoY, driven by the addition of new properties, resulting in their occupancy rate climbing to 66% compared to 43% in 4Q25. Existing Maldives hotels also logged an 11% increase in RevPAR.
In contrast, Dubai hotel RevPAR fell by 27% from last year due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, with occupancy dropping below 30% in March. Osaka hotel RevPAR slipped by 5% year-on-year, mainly due to foreign exchange movements.
KKPS expects hotel profits to rise 9% YoY to THB 700 million, with a notable turnaround from new Maldives hotels, moving from a THB 74 million loss in 1Q25 to an expected profit of THB 30-40 million in 1Q26.
For the food and beverage segment, same-store sales growth (SSS) should climb by 1%, and an EBITDA margin improvement of 1.5 percentage points is anticipated, leading food profits to grow 29% year-on-year to THB 200 million. CENTEL is also expected to book a gain from the Osaka hotel divestment, which will raise net profit to THB 1.7 – 1.9 billion.
Looking ahead, KKPS noted a negative RevPAR trend in April, as the Middle East conflict weighs on performance. Thai hotel RevPAR is projected to decline by 5% year-on-year in April (flat when excluding renovation properties), and existing Maldives hotel RevPAR is also set for a 5% drop.
Dubai’s situation is even more severe, with RevPAR forecast to fall by 70-80% and occupancy staying below 30%. However, the new Maldives hotels continue their ramp-up, pushing losses of THB 150 million in 2Q25 towards breakeven in 2Q26.
For 2026, KKPS forecasts that CENTEL’s profit will grow by 15% to THB 2.2 billion, as hotel segment losses in the Maldives narrow significantly. However, the firm has trimmed its profit forecast for the year by 3 – 4%—primarily due to continued weakness in the Dubai property—and has revised the price objective down to THB 38. KKPS maintains its “Neutral” rating, citing ongoing uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict.
