Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on June 4, 2026, that as the U.S. is preparing to impose the Section 301 tariffs on multiple countries, including Thailand, he assessed that the impact on the kingdom’s economy and stock market will be limited.
The analyst explained that the tariffs’ impact will largely be on a short-term sentiment, as the measure has not yet been enforced and must still undergo a public hearing process, expected to be completed on July 7, 2026.
Should the U.S. proceed with the Section 301 levies after the temporary tariff measure under Section 122 expires on July 24, 2026, the tax rate might increase from 10% to 12.5%. This is a relatively small increase and is not an additional levy upon the existing base. Meanwhile, many of Thailand’s competitor countries are likely to be taxed at similar rates, so the competitive disadvantage to Thailand is not seen as significant.
At the same time, several product groups within the critical U.S. supply chain—such as storage devices, data centers, semiconductors, electronic components, PCB assembly, communication devices, smartphones, as well as some agricultural and food products—are likely to receive exemptions or be less affected, since the U.S. still requires imports in these categories. KSS estimates the additional impact on Thailand’s GDP at only about 1-2 basis points.
Furthermore, KSS expects the inflationary impact from the tariff to have already been priced in to about 70 basis points, as the market has already recognized this risk previously. As a result, the inflationary impact from the tariff measures should fade over the next year, which supports a positive outlook on subsequent interest rate trends.
Mr. Koraphat also stated that the overall market is supported by a new investment wave in Asia—The New CAPEX Cycle—especially infrastructure investment in AI, data centers, and technology, which is the largest investment wave in Asia since 2003 – 2007. The main beneficiaries include Taiwan, South Korea, China, Japan, and Thailand, which is increasingly viewed as a regional hub for data centers and AI infrastructure.
Given these factors, KSS has revised its 2026 SET Index target up to 1,680 points, from the previous 1,600, after raising the market’s new earnings forecast to THB 96 per share, from THB 94, based on a P/E ratio of 17.5 times, which is still below the Thai bourse’s 10-year average of about 18.3 times. This indicated that the market still has a discount and potential for further recovery if the investment cycle becomes clearer.
Sectors likely to benefit from the New CAPEX Cycle wave include energy and power, which are crucial to meeting data center electricity demand, with GULF and GPSC as key picks. PTT is also highlighted, as it may also benefit from the demand for natural gas (LNG), a major and stable energy source for data centers compared to current renewables.
The banking sector is also expected to benefit from both wealth management business in the short term, and loan recovery in the mid-to-long term in line with the investment cycle. The net interest margin (NIM) also appears to have passed its trough. Recommended banks are KBANK and BBL.
For the industrial estate sector, which is the first to benefit from the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI), AMATA is recommended. For communication and technology, ADVANC is recommended, as it is in the core ecosystem supporting digital infrastructure expansion.
KSS also assesses that renewed foreign investment in the Thai stock market reflects positive views on Asia and Thailand as markets with opportunities to capture the new investment cycle—not merely funds shifting out from Indonesia, but a selection for clearer investment themes, where Thailand stands out with its infrastructure, BOI investments, and growth opportunities in the data center industry.
For DELTA, which contributed a significant weighting to the index, KSS sees it as an equity that can drive the index through the key resistance level, but given its price premium, it is more suitable for short-term speculation than as a long-term investment theme.
Other sectors also have potential to gradually recover in line with the investment cycle, including tourism, finance, hospitals, and retail, especially if the U.S.-Iran tensions ease.
