On Tuesday, the share price of Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG) at the time of 11:30 a.m. was at THB 47.25, a THB 1.75 or 3.85% increase with a total trading value of THB 448.11 million.
KGI Securities (Thailand) provided a preliminary assessment of CBG shares, forecasting that its core profit in 2Q26 will reach approximately THB 640 million—a 5% increase from the previous quarter, but a 20% decrease year-on-year. This puts CBG’s core profit for the first half of 2026 at about THB 1.3 billion, down 20% from the same period last year, accounting for about 48% of its previous full-year profit forecast.
Key drivers for 2Q26 profit include robust seasonal domestic demand for energy drinks during the summer, even as the company faces pressure from rising production costs. Specifically, natural gas prices rose about 15% quarter-on-quarter, while aluminum prices increased around 12% in the same period, both impacting the cost of goods sold (COGS).
However, compared to the previous year, profit is projected to decline due to lost revenue from the Cambodian market, as the company ceased operations there since mid-June 2025.
KGI projects the gross profit margin (GPM) for 2Q26 at 24.6%, down from 25.9% in 1Q26 and 27% in 2Q25. This is primarily due to persistently high raw material and energy costs, despite increased sales volume driving production efficiency and greater benefit from operating leverage.
Consequently, KGI has upgraded its recommendation for CBG shares from “Hold” to “Buy”, raising the target price to THB 51.50 from the previous THB 41. The new target price is based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19x, up from 16x.
KGI also revised up its net profit forecast for the period 2026 – 2028 by 4 – 6%, reflecting improved gross margins and stronger-than-expected domestic energy drink sales. Even so, KGI’s new profit estimate remains about 2 – 4% below the market consensus.
The research team believes production costs have peaked, and a clear recovery in revenue is likely in the upcoming periods, further supported by the ongoing share buyback program. As a result, the reward/risk profile for CBG shares has become much more attractive.
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has also expressed a positive outlook on CBG, highlighting the company’s robust growth prospects. KKPS forecasts an 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in net profit for CBG between 2026 and 2028, following a temporary slowdown projected for 2025 and the first half of 2026.
Reflecting an earnings upgrade of 2%, 7%, and 14% for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively—driven by higher sales and lower selling, general, and administrative expenses—KKPS has raised its target price to THB 59 from THB 50, and reiterated its “Buy” rating. The updated valuation uses a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.2% and an unchanged 16x target price-to-earnings ratio (PER), with the price target rolled forward to 2027.
Despite these upgrades, CBG’s valuation remains inexpensive at 13.2x/11.8x PER for 2027/2028, which is two standard deviations below its average since its 2014 IPO. Furthermore, KKPS anticipates attractive dividend yields once CBG turns net cash in 2026.
KKPS noted that the market primarily values CBG as an energy drink company, potentially underestimating its transition towards a broader beverage ecosystem. The company is poised to shift from merely defending its market share to creating an integrated beverage network supported by alcoholic beverage sales, nationwide distribution, and in-house manufacturing. This expanded ecosystem could access a potential market size six times larger than the energy drink segment alone. KKPS projects CBG’s total revenue CAGR will accelerate to 10% during 2026 – 2030, compared to 5% from 2021 – 2025.
CBG’s core energy drink business remains its key growth driver. Domestic energy drink sales achieved a 5% CAGR between 2019 and 2025, reaching record highs in 2024 – 2025 with market share climbing to 28% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
KKPS sees 9% and 8% domestic sales growth in 2026 and 2027, anticipating further market share gains towards management’s 32% target. International sales are projected to return to positive growth from the third quarter of 2026, following a downturn due to the Cambodia conflict, and are expected to grow 15% in 2027, with additional upside from potential partnerships in China.
Additionally, CBG’s distribution revenue—bolstered by the Khao Hom vodka market—achieved a 31% CAGR from 2020 to 2025. KKPS expects this segment to grow at a 16% CAGR over 2026-2030, including 20% annual growth in both 2026 and 2027.
