Bualuang Securities (BLS) has provided a summary of key takeaways from the ‘Road to Net Zero’ event, maintaining an ‘Overweight’ view on the Thai utilities sector, noting that Thailand’s Power Development Plan (PDP2026) is nearing completion, with the energy minister targeting at least 60% of total installed capacity from clean energy by 2050.
The plan is expected to be approved by the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) and officially announced by the end of 2026.
The seminar highlighted three main themes:
- PDP2026 and Electricity Market Reform: The plan aims for around 60% installed capacity from clean energy and ending coal-fired power generation by 2050. There will be a shift from a fixed Reserve Margin to using Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) for grid reliability. The plan also supports Direct Power Purchase Agreements (Direct PPAs) and third-party access to the electricity network.
- Shift in Electricity Demand: Data centers are expected to drive demand of about 30GW, with 9.6GW concentrated in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). The expanding adoption of electric vehicles will also boost electricity usage.
- Grid Stability Costs and Transition Risks: Despite falling renewable generation costs, maintaining system stability amidst a high share of renewables presents challenges. The sector will need additional investment in grid support systems, transmission expansion, battery energy storage systems (BESS), small modular nuclear reactors (SMR), and infrastructure upgrades.
From policymakers, Energy Minister Akanat Promphan emphasized the energy transition is a strategic investment, not a cost burden. Solar is expected to become the dominant electricity source, with increased household solar rooftop quotas (from 90MW to 500+500MW at a feed-in rate of THB 2.20/kWh), elimination of factory permit requirements for installations, and expansion of Direct PPAs from a 2GW pilot project.
Wattanapong Kurovat, Director of the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO), highlighted the three pillars of energy policy: security, economy, and environment, alongside the 4D1E strategy and LOLE as the new grid reliability benchmark. Technologies under consideration include SMR, BESS, and hydrogen co-firing.
From the industry’s perspective, the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is shifting to becoming an ‘Ecosystem Connector,’ focusing on AI-driven renewable generation forecasting and expanding pumped storage hydro projects.
The Thai Renewable Energy Industries Association (RE100) viewed clean energy as a competitive advantage and called for opening third-party access to let industries directly source green electricity. The share of renewables in Thailand’s installed capacity has only marginally increased from 14% in 2020 to 17% in 2025.
B.Grimm Power (BGRIM)’s Nopadej Karnasuta described smart grids as the ‘first button’ in the energy transition, noting BGRIM’s 3GW microgrid in industrial estates. Private sector players like WHA Utilities and Power (WHAUP) and Grab also expect business-led clean energy demand to accelerate the transition.
Notably, the Ministry of Energy targets solar installed capacity to reach 272,087MW by 2050. As of fiscal year-end 2025, Thailand’s renewable electricity capacity sold to the grid was 8,287MW, with a further 4,466MW produced for private use and direct sales, as reported by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC).
Following these developments, Bualuang assigns a ‘Buy’ rating to BGRIM, GULF, GUNKUL, and WHAUP, with target prices of THB 20.00, THB 78.00, THB 3.84, and THB 5.40, respectively. GPSC, on the other hand, receives a ‘Hold’ recommendation, with a target price of THB 40.00 per share.
