Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has upgraded its rating on Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited (SET: GPSC) to “Buy,” raising its target price to THB 60 from the previous THB 42.5 per share. This upward revision reflects several positive developments in the utility sector that are expected to benefit GPSC, including capacity growth from direct power purchase agreements (Direct PPAs) with data centers and potential new capacity under Thailand’s new Power Development Plan (PDP 2026).
KKPS has increased its 2027 – 2030 profit forecasts for GPSC by 6%. The revised price target incorporates THB 10.7 from changes in weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and valuation roll-forward to end-2027 estimates, THB 3.5 from the Direct PPA deals with data centers, and THB 3.3 from existing power operations due to efficiency improvements and a projected compound annual growth rate in equity megawatt capacity of 16% between 2027 and 2030. Valuations align with the industry leaders, narrowing from 20.5x price-to-earnings ratio for 2027 to 16.2x for 2030.
Despite a downgrade to the 2026 core profit estimate by 10% due to anticipated gas cost pressures in the second half of the year, the 2027 model remains unchanged, pointing to robust net profit growth of 19%. Core profit projections for 2028-2030 have been lifted by 2 – 15% on expectations of higher load factors for the small power producer (SPP) segment, new solar capacity in India via its 39.9% stake in Avaada Energy, and further Direct PPAs with data centers amounting to 500 megawatts in 2029 – 2030.
GPSC’s net profit growth outlook for 2027 is also supported by an EBITDA improvement program initiated in 2025, with recurring gains anticipated through 2027, targeting THB 900 million in additional EBITDA primarily from cost-saving initiatives, centralized financing, loan restructuring, and asset monetization. Additionally, the Gheco-1 power plant, where GPSC holds a 65% stake, is expected to benefit from reduced coal inventory losses, falling from THB 400 – 500 million in 2026 to THB 100 million in 2027.
The company’s financial position remains strong with a net gearing ratio of 0.7x as of the end of the second quarter 2026, well below its debt covenant of 2.5x, allowing for further debt capacity to fund new growth initiatives.
