UTCC Slashes Thailand’s Growth Forecast to 3.1% in 2022 amid Spike in Energy Prices

UTCC raises the inflation estimate for Thailand in 2022 to 6.0 percent, up from the previous projection of 1.5 percent, as effects of soaring energy prices; while the country’s growth forecast lowers to 3.1 percent.

The Economic and Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday slashed its economic growth forecast for 2022 to 3.1 percent, down from 4.2 percent in November 2021. Rising global energy prices are viewed as a key factor. Also , it is estimated that Thai exports this year will increase by 6.3 percent compared to the prior estimate of 5.4% percent.

Lowering the Thai economy estimate based on the following hypotheses: 1. The volume of global trade falls to 4 percent and the global gross domestic product falls to 2.9%, 2. This year, the total number of international tourists will reach at least 6.1 million, 3. The average Thai baht to dollar is 34.25 baht per dollar, 4. The estimated annual average price of Dubai crude oil is $110 per barrel, and 5. The policy interest rate to stay in range of 0.50-1.0 percent at end-2022.